I saw someone on the street claiming that the supply of stablecoins + ETF net inflows are "ironclad evidence." Frankly, I’m a bit afraid of this kind of narrative; correlation looking good doesn’t equal causation. The increase in stablecoin issuance might just be due to market-making/settlement needs, or it could be bridging across chains, arbitrage, or even just swapping from other channels to a new shell; ETF inflows are the same—whether off-exchange funds come in or not depends on whether people are willing to deposit and withdraw, and whether the compliance channels are smooth, but it’s not a straight line. Recently, some regions have tightened or loosened tax and compliance policies, and market sentiment can turn on a dime. On-chain data might look good but could just be moving funds around. Anyway, I now prefer to focus on the process: whether the fund flow is clear, whether there are risks with bridges and custody, whether governance votes are being controlled by a few people… don’t rush to take the story as the conclusion.