Epic! Arthur Hayes declares: $BTC has bottomed at 60k, 126k is just the starting point, the ultimate wealth transfer under global liquidity infusion

Hey, buddy, sit tight. I just finished reading a letter coming straight from the depths of Wall Street—not one of those pompous reports, but something written by someone who’s been at the card table for twenty years, experienced bull and bear markets firsthand.

He said this round of the market started on February 28th, the day the US military launched an airstrike on Iran. Since that day, $BTC has taken the lead over gold and tech stocks. He did some math: if $BTC drops to $60k this year, that’s the bottom; from there, driven by flows of US dollars and RMB, hitting 126k is a sure thing. Don’t ask why, just ask about liquidity injections.

Do you know what the world is doing now? Two groups are burning money like crazy. One is AI believers—they think pouring a trillion dollars into data centers and training models can create paradise on earth. The other is the war machine—military-industrial complex’s money-printing machine is faster than the central bank’s. Politicians, to keep their seats, can only tacitly approve or even push for unlimited money printing. And what’s the result? Essential goods are neglected, food and energy supply chains are as fragile as paper. If trade routes are cut off, the dollars in your hands become worthless paper.

Marco Papic from BCA Research hit the nail on the head: the global infrastructure pattern is deeply tied to US geopolitical dominance. Germany relies on NATO for air defense, Gulf countries depend on Hormuz for oil, Australia’s aviation kerosene has to be imported from Korea… all part of the US-designed just-in-time global logistics system. But now, with war ringing out, this system is cracking. Bangladesh might face famine due to fertilizer shortages from the Persian Gulf, Europeans are forced to buy US liquefied natural gas at triple the price.

So, all sovereign nations are recalculating: stockpile US debt, buy S&P 500—can these ensure I have food and oil when I go to war? No. What’s the future trend? Reduce dollar assets, focus on repairing pipelines, building power grids, stockpiling fertilizer. This will trigger a chain reaction: overseas capital massively selling US bonds, US financial markets could explode. US Treasury Secretary Yellen isn’t stupid; she has two weapons: one is expanding dollar swap lines, allowing friendly countries to borrow for infrastructure without selling bonds; the other is adjusting banking regulations to let banks buy more US debt. These moves are essentially money printing.

AI is even more bottomless. Both China and the US are desperately burning money—Jevons’ paradox says lower compute costs lead to exponential consumption; the Red Queen effect says if you invest 5 billion today, your opponent invests 10 billion tomorrow, and you’re just spinning your wheels. Where does this money come from? Only from printing. The Fed and central banks have to keep pouring money into tech, even if inflation rises, they dare not stop.

When will this bubble burst? Arthur Hayes believes it will happen when two things occur simultaneously: first, a mega-scale, financially absurd AI company IPO or acquisition so large that it shocks the market; second, the 2028 US election, where the opposition plays the “anti-AI, anti-infrastructure inflation” card. But that’s in the future. For now, the liquidity window is wide open.

On specific actions, he’s made his stance clear: his positions are maxed out. Besides heavy holdings in Hyperliquid ($HYPE) and Zcash ($ZEC), he specifically mentions $NEAR, which he’ll detail in the next article—mainly because of the privacy narrative combined with smart ecosystem intentions, capable of generating positive cash flow and pushing the token to new all-time highs.

Don’t overthink it. The dumbest thing in a bull market is to make frequent judgments. When will it rise? Wait for disruptive market events before deciding. For now, buy blindly, hold firm, go with the trend.

Remember what he said: this bull market started with the first missile landing on February 28th. You either get on board or watch others pop champagne.

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