Recently, I wanted to compare a few commonly used on-chain metrics to see if they can clearly reflect the current true state of the market.

First, let's look at the MVRV Z-Score. This indicator is essentially the ratio of market capitalization to realized capitalization. The orange line has been declining from the high point at the beginning of 2024 and is now oscillating in the middle range between 1.0 and 2.0. Historical data shows that the true top of a bull market usually occurs when the Z-Score skyrockets to 7 or 8. Currently, it is far below that level, indicating that even if prices are high, the market has not reached an extreme overheating state from a long-term perspective. In other words, although prices are fluctuating at high levels, the indicator is declining, which precisely suggests that the previous bubble is gradually being absorbed by the market.

Next, let's look at the Puell Multiple, which reflects miner revenue. The orange line is now trending downward, gradually approaching or entering the mid-low range of 0.5 to 1.0. This indicator shows the current revenue pressure on miners relative to the past year. The current trend indicates that miners' relative earnings are declining—which is normal, often occurring after halving events (where revenue is cut in half) or during market corrections. The good news is that it hasn't yet touched the green bottom-fishing zone, but it has indeed moved away from the red high-yield area.

Finally, let's discuss NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). The blue curve has been sliding from the "belief" phase at the beginning of the year (green zone) down to the current "optimistic yet anxious" yellow zone, with a value around 0.4. This reflects the true psychological change among holders. From an extremely optimistic state, the market sentiment is gradually cooling down, undergoing a very natural adjustment process.