The US dollar index has recently experienced a significant drop - the weekly decline has reached a four-month high. The cause is the rumor that White House economic adviser Hassett may take over as Fed chairman; he is known to be a dove and has previously stated that "going long on the dollar in 2026 is not a good strategy." If he really takes office, monetary easing will be a certainty, which could be a big opportunity for assets like Bitcoin.

Don't get too excited, let's take a look at the current market data: The probability of Hasset taking office has reached 53%, the probability of a rate cut in December is 84%, and the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF is $241 million in a single day. Institutions have long voted with their money, but retail investors often get carried away at such times. The real logic of making money in the crypto world isn't mindless rush, but understanding the game behind the policies — the independence of the Fed has been infiltrated by politics, which may look good in the short term, but may not be a good thing in the long run.

Several practical suggestions:

Don't go all in on asset allocation. Lock in half of your position in mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, consider allocating 30% to public chains with ecological support like SOL and AVAX, and keep the remaining 20% for bottom fishing. The stories of becoming rich through altcoins are nice to hear, but the data shows that 93% of small coins don't survive a bull market.

Timing should be approached in reverse. Reduce positions a bit before the Fed meeting, and enter the market once the policy is truly implemented. Those "instant pump" temptations are the easiest to make people the bag holders, because the market is driven by expectations, and the realization of good news often serves as a risk signal.

Leverage must be restrained. Contract positions should be controlled within 5% of total funds, and stop-loss and take-profit must be set in advance. Losing all the principal can happen with just one liquidation, but to recover it, you need to earn consecutively ten times—this is something everyone can calculate.

The cycle of the dollar's rise and fall has remained unchanged: when the dollar is weak, the crypto circle is lively, and when the dollar is strong, it's a mess. Retail investors' survival strategy is not to guess the tops and bottoms, but to ensure they can hold on until the next round of the market. Buffett's saying "I am fearful when others are greedy" is indeed correct, but what’s more crucial is to maintain your own rhythm amidst all the emotions.