On the eve of the December interest rate meeting, there are noteworthy signs of divergence within the Fed. The voting result was 10:2, which is not common during Powell's eight-year term—some members leaned towards a 50 basis point rate cut, while others were completely opposed to any adjustment.

The root of the divergence lies in the ambiguity of economic signals. Inflation data hovers around 3%, still distant from the 2% policy target; although there are signs of a slowdown in the job market, it has not yet reached a level that requires urgent intervention. The decision-makers are faced with a choice: prioritize suppressing inflation or hedge against an economic downturn in advance.

What does this uncertainty mean for the cryptocurrency market? Historical experience shows that expectations of a shift in monetary policy often affect asset prices earlier than actual actions. The realization of interest rate cut expectations can release liquidity and drive up risk assets; conversely, the emotional recovery after unmet expectations may also create a rebound window. The market's pricing mechanism allows every policy swing to become a trading opportunity.

The deeper logic is: the internal divisions within the Fed expose the uncertainty of the policy path, which often strengthens the safe-haven properties of non-sovereign assets such as gold and Bitcoin. When the predictability of traditional monetary policy diminishes, the appeal of decentralized assets tends to increase.

The question now for the market is: if there really is a rate cut in December, can $BTC break through $130,000? If interest rates remain unchanged, how deep will the adjustment go? In either case, volatility itself is the norm in the crypto market. Being prepared for different scenarios may be more important than betting on a single direction.