Last year, I had tea with an investment veteran from Shenzhen. This guy retired from the Secondary Market ten years ago, and that wave of market activity before last year's National Day doubled his assets. When discussing investment insights, I still remember a few things he said.

"After more than twenty years, making money is not because I know more, but because I make fewer mistakes." He lit a cigarette, "Those who study candlestick patterns and technical indicators every day usually end up losing money. I just do the simplest thing—understand who is buying and who is selling."

He gave an example: whether the price rises or not fundamentally depends on whether there is large capital willing to push it up. And whether large capital is willing to push it up depends on whether retail investors have cleared out. This logic sounds convoluted, but it is essentially a game of strategy — what the main force fears most is that during the process of pushing up, a bunch of people will take profits and run, causing a crash that makes them lose money as well.

So before the real increase, there must be a wash first.

"Those who cannot hold onto their floating funds panic at the slightest disturbance, and are the easiest to be thrown off the train in the early stages." He flicked the ash off his cigarette, "After the wash, the remaining ones are the diehards, and it will be smooth to pull up at this time. If you want to judge whether a target still has space, don't look at the technical side, look at the intentions of the opponent's chips—if the main force begins to not care whether retail investors can make money, then it's time to get serious."

I asked him how he views the opponent's盘.

He smiled: "Trading volume, chip distribution, and the methods of large orders don't require profound theories; common sense is enough. Most people lose money, not because they don't understand, but because they overthink things and end up messing up simple matters."

After that day, I started to review my operations and found that many times I was indeed overthinking. The essence of the market has never been complicated; it is merely a tug-of-war between capital and chips. Those who can see through this layer can stand in a more proactive position.