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The aftershocks of the government shutdown have not dissipated yet, and the nightmare of data scarcity has arrived.
News on November 11 shows that the significant economic data that was supposed to be released on time in September and October is on its way - but no one can say when it will arrive. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the September employment report may appear as soon as this Friday, with a more realistic expectation being early next week. As for the three inflation indicators for October? CPI, PPI, and the PCE price index that the Federal Reserve is watching, in the most extreme case, could be completely postponed.
Even if the Bureau of Labor Statistics manages to piece together a version of the data, economists are not optimistic: the release is delayed until the freshness is gone, the quality of the data is questionable, and its reference value is greatly reduced.
This is too critical for the Federal Reserve. Should the third round of interest rate cuts be initiated? The decision-making basis has faltered at a crucial moment—September's employment data is delayed, and October's inflation data is missing. How should this be handled?
The market can only wait and guess for now. How much of a stir will this batch of delayed bad data cause? Anyway, no one dares to make any guarantees. #美国终止政府停摆危机 holders, fasten your seatbelts.