Is $100 Silver Really On The Menu? Here's What The Math Says

First Majestic CEO Keith Neumeyer’s been screaming about triple-digit silver for years—and honestly? He might be onto something.

Silver just hit a 14-year high of $44.11 on Sept 22, up 50% since Jan 2025. To hit Neumeyer’s $100 target, it needs another 125% jump. Sounds crazy until you look at the supply side.

The Supply Crunch Story

Here’s where it gets interesting: miners are pulling ~800-825M ounces annually, but demand is running 1.2-1.4B ounces. That’s a 400-600M ounce annual deficit. Why? Solar panels, EVs, semiconductors—all the green tech stuff eats silver like crazy. And unlike most commodities, silver’s mostly a byproduct from base metal mining, so when prices don’t move, supply doesn’t follow.

LBMA physical silver inventories are down 30-40% (gold only down 3-4%), and above-ground stockpiles have dropped ~500M ounces recently.

What’s Actually Driving Price?

Right now it’s geopolitical chaos + Fed rate cuts. When rates drop, precious metals wake up. Add Trump’s tariffs, Middle East tensions, de-dollarization fears—and you’ve got a perfect storm for flight-to-safety.

But here’s the kicker: gold-to-silver production ratio is 1:7.5, yet the price ratio is sitting at 1:92. That gap is insane. If silver just caught up halfway toward what the mining ratio suggests, we’re talking $60-70+ easily.

What Do Other Experts Say?

• Sprott’s Maria Smirnova: deficit of 150-200M oz annually (~10-20% of supply)
• InvestingHaven: expecting silver to test all-time highs in 2025, potentially reaching $77 by 2027
• Tavi Costa (Crescat Capital): seeing $50 in 6 months, new highs within 12
• John Rubino: supply deficit could trigger COMEX shock if physical runs too low
• Frank Holmes: “easily” hits $100 given structural deficits

The Real Question

$100 silver isn’t some moonshot fantasy—it’s what happens when industrial demand + investment panic + physical shortage align. Whether it happens in 2 years or 5 years is the only debate. The thesis? Pretty solid.

The bigger wildcard: will the paper market finally break? Once banks can’t manipulate futures through endless shorts, all bets are off.