Wall Street Strategist: S&P 500 Could Double This Decade — Here's Why

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, just dropped a bold prediction: S&P 500 hits 15,000 by 2030, which means 123% upside from today’s 6,728. That’s roughly 17% annual returns over five years.

Sound crazy? Maybe. But here’s what he’s betting on:

Two Mega Trends Driving the Rally

1) AI solves the labor crisis Global labor shortage hitting 80M workers by 2030. Companies will go all-in on automation and AI. Lee points out this happened before—tech stocks went parabolic during labor shortages in 1948-67 and 1991-99. History could rhyme again, potentially making tech 50% of the index.

2) Millennials inherit $45+ trillion The wealth transfer is here. Millennials will have more disposable income than any generation by 2029, reshaping everything from fintech to consumer preferences. That capital reallocation is a major economic force.

The Play: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

Want direct exposure? VOO tracks the S&P 500—80% of all U.S. equities. Top holdings: Nvidia (7.9%), Microsoft (6.7%), Apple (6.5%). Ultra-low fees at 0.03%.

Historical context: S&P 500 returned 712% over 20 years (11% annually). Lee’s bet requires 17% annual returns—aggressive but not impossible if AI and generational wealth reshape growth.

Reality check: This is a bullish call, not guaranteed. Most investors should hold some S&P 500 exposure regardless.