According to the latest analysis data from several institutions on Wall Street, the current encryption market is in the mid-stage of a bull run, with significant upside potential for Bit, while the highly anticipated main rise of altcoins is also quietly approaching.

Bitcoin target price range: $150,000 to $180,000 is the most likely range.

The latest target prices from 11 Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and Bernstein, show a clear probability distribution for the top price of Bitcoin in this bull run:

· $150,000~$180,000 → Probability 61% (most likely range)

· $200,000~$250,000 → Probability 28%

· Over $300,000 → Probability 7%

This data indicates that institutions generally believe Bitcoin still has approximately 3-4 times the upside potential compared to the current price level, with the $150,000-$180,000 range becoming the strongest target range of consensus in the market.

Bull run peak timetable: The first quarter of 2026 is the key.

Based on the implied probabilities of CME futures and options combined with historical cycle analysis, the probability distribution for the peak time of this bull run is as follows:

· Peak before Q1 2026 → Probability 73% (absolute dominance)

· Peak in Q2-Q3 2026 → Probability 21%

· Peak after 2026 → Probability 6%

This means that the next year may be the main rise window of this bull run, and investors should seize this critical period.

Altcoin main rise: Launching from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026

The market's most concerned altcoin season (Altseason) has clear signals for its start time:

· Launch from December 2025 to March 2026 → Current probability is as high as 82%

This prediction is based on technical analysis indicating that Bitcoin's dominance has entered a downward channel. Historical data shows that each time Bitcoin's dominance falls below 60%, it inevitably drops to the critical point of 53-55%, which is the technical signal marking the official start of the altcoin season.

Overall market outlook: Total market capitalization may reach 10 trillion USD.

The current total market value of the encryption market is approximately $3.3 trillion, while institutional models show:

· Reaching a total market value of 10 trillion USD → Implied probability 67%

· This is equivalent to about 3 times the growth potential at the current market capitalization level.

In addition, the latest odds from the gambling market show that the implied probability of Bitcoin reaching over $250,000 before 2026 is 31%. Although the probability is not high, it is still worth paying attention to.

Investment Insight: Seize the Bull Run's Most Profitable Phase

Based on various data, the market's common rumors such as "there is still a 3-8 times space in the middle of the bull run" and "the main rise has not yet started" currently have a high probability support ranging from 65% to 82%. Although it has not reached 100% certainty, it is already considered a highly probable event in the financial market.

The current phase is indeed the most favorable stage of this bull run, with various data indicators confirming the characteristics of the mid-bull market. For investors, understanding these probability distributions helps in formulating reasonable investment strategies, ensuring that they do not miss opportunities while also avoiding blind chasing of highs.

Data doesn't lie, but the market is always uncertain. Rational investment and proper risk control are essential to achieve stable profits in this historic bull run. $BTC $GT