When Will We Actually Run Out of Oil?

BP’s 2014 prediction says we’ve got ~53 years of oil left based on current consumption. But here’s the catch: this only counts “proved reserves”—oil we know how to extract profitably with today’s tech.

The plot twist? Total oil in the ground is way larger. New drilling tech keeps unlocking previously unreachable reserves. Texas just discovered 20 billion barrels in the Wolfcamp shale (bigger than Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay produced in 43 years), plus we’re constantly finding new deposits.

The real concern: Oil discovery is slowing fast. Investment hit 70-year lows, and offshore exploration dropped from 40% to just 13% of sanctioned projects. So it’s not about running out—it’s about finding it becoming harder and more expensive.

Bottomline: The “peak oil” doomsday predictions keep getting pushed back, but the energy transition is accelerating anyway. The question isn’t “when do we run out,” it’s “when does it stop being profitable to drill?”