Gold Price Analysis: Will the Golden Bull Run of the Past 50 Years Reoccur in the Next 50 Years?

Gold has been an important trading currency in the economy since ancient times. It has a high density, good ductility, and is extremely durable, and besides being used as currency, it can also be used for jewelry and industrial products.

Looking back over the past 50 years, while gold prices have fluctuated, the overall trend has been upward, even reaching new highs repeatedly in 2025. So, will this half-century bull market continue into the next 50 years? How can we judge the trend of gold prices? Is gold suitable for long-term investment or for short-term trading?

Let's explore these issues one by one.

The Historical New High of Gold Prices and the 50-Year Increase

With the changes in geopolitical and economic events, gold prices have experienced many fluctuations. Looking back over the past 50 years, since August 15, 1971, when U.S. President Nixon announced the end of the dollar's convertibility into gold, the dollar began to float freely in the foreign exchange market. In the following 50 years, the price of gold rose from $35 per ounce to $3,700 by the first half of 2025, with recent momentum not slowing down. Spot gold broke through $4,300 per ounce for the first time in October, and multiple institutions have also raised their target prices for next year.

Looking at the history of gold prices, they have increased more than 120 times since 1971! Especially starting from 2024, with the global situation being turbulent, driven by central banks and investors, gold prices continue to hit new historical highs, with an increase of over 104% just since 2024.

Review of Gold Price Trends Over 50 Years

Why only review the gold price of the past 50 years?

After World War II and until 1971, the United States, in order to compete for the status of the world trade settlement currency, required most countries' currencies to be pegged to the dollar, while the dollar was pegged to gold, stipulating that 1 ounce of gold could be exchanged for 35 dollars. At that time, the dollar was essentially a voucher for gold, and this international trade exchange rate system was known as the Bretton Woods system.

Later, trade demand grew rapidly, the speed of gold mining could not keep up, and the United States discovered a large outflow of gold. Therefore, in 1971, then U.S. President Nixon announced the decoupling of the dollar from the gold standard, officially ending the Bretton Woods system.

Looking back at the gold price trends from 1970 to 2025 over the past 50 years, they can generally be divided into four main upward periods.

● First rising range: 1970 to 1975

After the US dollar decoupled from gold, the international gold price rose from 35 dollars per ounce to 183 dollars, an increase of over 400%, lasting for 5 years.

The initial increase in prices stemmed from the public's distrust of the dollar after decoupling. After all, the dollar was a voucher in the past, and now it cannot be exchanged, which may turn into worthless paper in the future. Therefore, most people would rather hold gold than continue holding dollars. Later, due to the oil crisis, the U.S. printed more currency to purchase oil, which triggered a second wave of price increases. However, this issue gradually eased after the oil crisis was resolved, and the public also realized that the dollar is still convenient, causing gold prices to fall back to around 100 dollars.

● Second upward range: 1976 to 1980

The gold price has once again surpassed $104 per ounce to reach $850, an increase of over 700%, lasting for about 3 years.

The second wave of price increases was triggered by the second Middle East oil crisis and geopolitical turmoil, including the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. These events exacerbated the global economic recession and led to a rapid rise in inflation rates in Western countries, causing gold to experience another surge. However, this time it was overhyped, and after the oil crisis was resolved and the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, gold prices quickly fell back, fluctuating almost between 200 and 300 for the next 20 years.

● The third rising range: 2001 to 2011

The international gold price has surged from $260 per ounce to $1921, an increase of over 700%, continuing for 10 years.

The rise in gold prices during this phase was triggered by the "9/11 incident". 911 made the whole world realize that the war had never ended, and the United States also began a 10-year global counter-terrorism effort.

To pay for the huge military expenses, the U.S. government began to lower interest rates and issue bonds, which pushed up housing prices, forcing the U.S. to raise interest rates, ultimately leading to the 2008 financial crisis. To save the market, the U.S. implemented quantitative easing again, which resulted in a 10-year bull market for gold. After the outbreak of the European debt crisis in 2011, the price even surged to a peak of 1921 USD/ounce. Subsequently, due to the forced intervention of other EU countries and World Bank loans, gold prices stabilized again, ultimately settling around 1000 USD.

● Fourth upward range: The ten years after 2015

In the past decade, gold prices have experienced another round of increases. Between 2015 and 2023, international gold prices rose from $1,060 per ounce to over $2,000. There are many reasons driving this round of gold price increases, mainly including the implementation of negative interest rate monetary policies in Japan and Europe, global de-dollarization, the large-scale quantitative easing in the U.S. in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the Israel-Palestine conflict along with the Red Sea crisis in 2023, all of which have contributed to stabilizing gold prices around $2,000.

The years 2024 to 2025 witnessed an epic trend in gold prices. At the beginning of 2024, gold prices entered a strong upward mode, and by October, they had even surpassed 2800 dollars per ounce, reaching an unprecedented peak. The market generally believes that the risks associated with U.S. economic policies, global central banks increasing their gold reserves, and geopolitical turmoil are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices during this period.

Since 2025, tensions in the Middle East have continued to escalate, coupled with new variables arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, casting a shadow over global markets. At the same time, multiple factors such as trade concerns triggered by the U.S. tariff policies, severe fluctuations in global stock markets, and a continuously weakening U.S. dollar index have worked together to push gold prices higher, with gold prices repeatedly setting new historical records.

Is gold a quality investment?

To evaluate the pros and cons of gold investment, it is essential to consider the comparison objects and the time span.

• Since 1971, the price of gold has increased by 120 times.

• During the same period, the Dow Jones Index rose from about 900 points to around 46000 points, an increase of about 51 times.

Over a span of 50 years, the return on gold investments is actually not worse than that of the stock market, and may even be better. From the beginning of 2025 to now, gold has continued to soar, rising from around $2690/oz at the beginning of the year to about $4200/oz in mid-October, an increase of over 56%.

However, it should be noted that "the rise in gold prices is not steady". Between 1980 and 2000, gold prices fluctuated between 200 and 300 dollars. If you invested in gold during this time, it would be equivalent to having no returns at all. And how many 50-year periods can a person wait for?

Therefore, I believe gold is a good investment tool, but it is more suitable for swing trading when there is market activity, rather than purely holding it long-term.

Additionally, since gold is a natural resource, the cost and difficulty of mining will increase over time. Therefore, even if there is a decline after the bull market ends, it can still be observed that the price lows are gradually rising. When investing, it is important to grasp this rule to avoid doing futile work.

How to Invest in Gold?

There are various ways to invest in gold, which can be summarized into the following five categories:

1. Physical gold

Directly purchasing physical gold, such as gold bars. The advantage is that it is convenient for concealing assets, and gold can not only serve as a store of value but also be used as jewelry for wearing. The disadvantage is that transactions are relatively inconvenient.

2. Gold Savings Book

Gold savings passbook is similar to the early US dollar, serving as a storage certificate for gold. After the public buys and sells gold, the passbook will record the transactions. Physical gold can be deposited or withdrawn. The advantage is it is convenient to carry, while the disadvantage is that banks do not pay interest, and the buying and selling price gap is large, making it suitable only for long-term investment.

3. Gold ETF

Gold ETFs are similar to gold savings accounts, but they have better liquidity and are more convenient for trading. After purchasing, you will own corresponding shares, which correspond to a certain amount of gold. However, the company issuing the ETFs will charge management fees, so if gold prices do not fluctuate for a long time, their value will still slowly decline.

4. Gold Futures/Contracts for Difference

This is the most commonly used financial instrument by retail investors. The advantage is that it has leverage to amplify returns and can be used for both long and short positions. Gold futures and gold contracts for difference ( CFD ) share the common feature of margin trading, which results in lower trading costs, especially since CFD trading is more flexible and has a higher capital efficiency.

For investors looking to engage in short-term fluctuations, trading gold futures or Contracts for Difference (CFD) is more suitable.

The advantages of CFDs are that the trading time is more flexible, and you can open an account with a small amount of capital, making it more suitable for small investors and retail traders compared to futures.

Comparison and Analysis of Investment Returns in Gold, Stocks, and Bonds

Although gold, stocks, and bonds are commonly used financial instruments by investors, the ways in which the three help investors generate returns are not the same.

• The main profit from gold comes from the "price difference"; it does not earn interest, so it is important to grasp the timing of entry and exit when investing in gold.

• The main income from investing in bonds comes from "coupon payments", so it is necessary to continuously increase the number of units to obtain more interest. At the same time, it is important to pay attention to Gate's policies and understand the changes in the risk-free interest rate to determine the timing of entry and exit.

• The returns from stocks come from "corporate value appreciation", which essentially means selecting high-quality companies for long-term holding.

Therefore, in terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the easiest, gold is next, and stocks are the hardest.

In terms of returns, although gold appears to have performed the best over the past 50 years, over the last 30 years, stock returns have been higher, followed by gold, and finally bonds.

Therefore, to profit from investing in gold, one needs to grasp the market trends, which usually consist of a long-term upward trend, followed by a sharp drop, then a period of stability before starting to rise again. If one can seize the upward trend to go long or the sharp drop to go short, the returns will be higher than those of bonds or stocks.

The basic principle for choosing between gold and stocks is "choose stocks during economic growth periods, allocate gold during economic recession periods." A more robust allocation method is for investors to set the proportions of investment products such as stocks, bonds, and gold based on their personal risk preferences and investment goals.

When the economic environment is good, corporate profit prospects are optimistic, and stocks tend to rise accordingly. In contrast, bonds classified by the market as "fixed income" assets are less favored, while gold, primarily serving as a means of value preservation and hedging, does not generate income and is similarly not in high demand.

On the contrary, during an economic downturn, when corporate profits decline, stocks become less favored by investors, and at this time, the value-preserving function of gold will be highlighted.