Spring Festival "gift coins market" analysis: Review of historical data in the crypto market

The crypto market has shown an upward trend recently, with a total market value recovering to 968.81 billion USD, reversing the sideways trend of the past three months. According to data, as of January 19, BTC has increased by 14.01% in the past 7 days and has remained above the 20,000 USD mark for 5 consecutive days.

To explore whether there is a similar "gift coins market" in the crypto market like the A-shares during the Spring Festival, this article analyzes the market data of BTC over the past 5 years and popular tokens over the past 3 years during the Spring Festival, and concludes with the following main findings:

1. BTC has experienced a "gift coins market" during the Spring Festival for the past 5 years, with the minimum increase being around 5% and the maximum exceeding 16%. It is highly likely that BTC will see a "gift coins market" this Spring Festival.

2. Buying BTC on New Year's Eve yields the highest average return rate when sold on any day afterward, reaching 9.4%. Buying before the fourth day of the new year also results in an average return rate exceeding 6.7% when sold on any day after. However, if bought after the fifth day, the average return rate will drop significantly to below 2%, increasing the risk of loss.

3. During the Spring Festival, the daily average maximum amplitude of BTC is comparable to usual. On the fourth day, the eleventh day, and the twelfth day of the lunar new year, the daily average maximum amplitude exceeded 7%, showing significant volatility.

4. During the Spring Festival in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of profitable chips for BTC increased by about 15 percentage points. The growth in the proportion of profitable chips was particularly noticeable from the second day to the fourth day of the festival.

5. In the past 3 years, if 10 popular assets were purchased at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold at the closing price on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, the average return rate would be about 16.79%; if sold at the closing price on the fourteenth day of the Lunar New Year, the average return rate would be about 20.01%. However, popular assets are highly volatile, and some assets may still incur losses during the Spring Festival.

Analysis of BTC Performance During the Spring Festival

In the past 5 years, BTC has fluctuated in the 7 days leading up to New Year's Eve, but during the Spring Festival (from New Year's Eve to the 14th day of the new year), it has shown an upward trend, with the minimum increase reaching around 5%. The increase during the Spring Festival in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022 exceeded 10%, with the highest exceeding 16.5%.

Data shows that buying BTC on New Year's Eve and selling it on any subsequent day yields the highest average return rate, reaching 9.4%. Buying before the fourth day of the lunar new year also results in an average return rate exceeding 6.7% when sold on any subsequent day. However, if purchased after the fifth day, the average return rate will significantly drop to below 2%, and there is a high probability of losses if bought on the seventh, ninth, tenth, or eleventh day of the lunar new year.

From the perspective of selling time, regardless of when you buy, the average return rate for selling on the fourth day is the highest, at about 7.3%. The average return rates for selling on the fifth, sixth, and eighth days are also relatively high, at about 6.8%.

Considering all trading cycles, the model with the highest average return over the past 5 years is to buy at the New Year's Eve opening price and sell at the closing price on the eighth day, with an average return rate of about 13.3%. Additionally, 12 other trading models have an average return rate exceeding 10%. However, if buying after the sixth day, among 45 trading models, 23 have an average return rate that is negative, with a loss probability of 51%.

It is worth noting that there is still a risk of high daily volatility for BTC during the Spring Festival. In the past five years, the average daily maximum amplitude during the Spring Festival has varied greatly, reaching about 8.1% in 2018 and 2021, while in 2019, 2020, and 2022 it was less than 4.5%. Among them, the average daily maximum amplitude exceeded 7% on the fourth day, the first day of the eleventh year, and the twelfth day of the new year, indicating greater volatility. In contrast, the average daily maximum amplitude on the first, fifth, and tenth days was below 5%, indicating relatively smaller fluctuations.

In terms of profitable chips, during the Spring Festival of 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022, the proportion of profitable chips in BTC showed an overall upward trend. The increase in 2019 and 2020 was significant, rising by about 15 percentage points. From the second to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, the growth of profitable chips was particularly noticeable.

Analysis of Popular Tokens' Performance During the Spring Festival

This article also reviews the Spring Festival market performance of popular assets over the past three years. From 52 popular assets, 10 samples were selected for analysis, and these assets have seen price increases between 7% and 200% over the past 7 days, with an average increase of approximately 34%.

Data shows that if these 10 popular assets were purchased at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold at the closing price on the sixth day of the lunar new year over the past 3 years, the average return rate would be approximately 16.79%. Among them, the average return rate was 9% in 2020, 15% in 2021, and 21% in 2022, showing a year-on-year upward trend.

If you buy at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sell at the closing price on the 14th day of the new year, the average return rate is about 20.01%. Among them, the average return in 2020 reached 37%, about 19% in 2021, and 16% in 2022, showing a downward trend year by year.

The four assets MANA, GALA, SAND, and SHIB have all achieved positive returns under the two trading modes mentioned above, while the six assets ETH, HNT, SOL, XRP, CVX, and FXS have incurred negative returns in one of the modes.

It should be noted that the average daily maximum amplitude of 10 popular sample assets during the Spring Festival over the past three years is about 13.27%, which is approximately 2.5 times that of BTC. Among them, FXS, GALA, and SAND have an average daily maximum amplitude exceeding 18%, significantly higher than other assets. This indicates that the volatility of popular assets is noticeably higher than that of BTC, and the investment risk under the "gift coins" market may also be greater.

Overall, there is indeed a "gift coins market" during the Spring Festival in the crypto market, but the performance of different assets varies greatly. Investors need to be cautious of risks while seizing opportunities and manage their positions and holding periods reasonably.