Bitcoin fell to $64,312 on August 7, mainly due to stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, which fueled expectations of an interest rate hike. The U.S. Department of Labor announced that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 totaled 199k, below economists’ forecast of 204k. CME FedWatch data showed that traders saw a 54.71% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in September.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Based on the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor and other institutions, the key macroeconomic indicators are as follows:
Initial jobless claims (week ending August 1): 199k (below the expected 204k and slightly above the previous week’s 198k)
Four-week moving average: 198,750 (previously 203,250, down by approximately 4,500)
Labor force participation rate: 61.5% (the lowest since March 2021; excluding the pandemic period, the lowest since June 1976)
Employment since 2026: An actual decrease of 833k
CME FedWatch probability of a September rate hike: 54.71% (25 bps)
Expected July average hourly earnings growth: Up 0.3% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year
Bitcoin Technical Range: Resistance Remains Unbroken, $64,000 Is Key Support
Bitcoin recently rebounded from a low near $62,400 and tested the $64,800–$65,000 resistance range, but consistently failed to break through it. After sellers entered the market, the price pulled back to the $64,000 support area. A break below the current support level could trigger more selling, while a rebound above $65,000 would help ease selling pressure and favor bullish momentum.
Generally, higher interest rates are unfavorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin because they reduce cash liquidity and make traditional interest-bearing products more attractive.
Citigroup and Vanguard Forecast: Unemployment Rate Could Rise to 4.5%
Citigroup economist Veronica Clark said that labor market data can still be described as “stable,” but expects this situation to change within several months. The unemployment rate could rise above 4.5%, and she expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in Q4, potentially cutting rates three times in total by January 2027. Vanguard’s 401(k) data model showed that July employment growth may have been only around 18k and noted that the risk of weak employment extending into the fall has increased.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said that the low-hiring, low-layoff environment is creating greater pressure for some groups, particularly those just entering the labor market. If inflation fails to improve, she will support future rate hikes.
FAQ
What was the main reason for Bitcoin’s decline on August 7?
According to the article’s analysis, the main reason was that initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending August 1 came in at 199k, below expectations, indicating a tight labor market and further supporting the Fed’s restrictive policy. CME FedWatch showed that the probability of a 25-bps rate hike in September rose to 54.71%, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
What is the current probability of a Fed rate hike in the U.S. in September?
According to the latest CME FedWatch data, traders currently see a 54.71% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 bps at its September meeting.
What are Citigroup and Vanguard’s forecasts for the U.S. labor market?
Citigroup economist Veronica Clark expects the unemployment rate to rise above 4.5%, with the Fed resuming rate cuts in Q4 and making three cuts in total by January 2027. Vanguard’s 401(k) model showed that July employment growth may have been only 18k and warned that weak employment could extend into the fall.
