Bitcoin fell to around $76,850 on Sept. 11, as the U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to be released, making it the last major inflation report before the FED FOMC meeting. The August PPI released Thursday rose 5.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month. After the PPI release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of the FED raising rates by 25 bps in September rising above 73%.
FED Rate-Hike Probability Rises to 73%, CPI Becomes Key Signal
Bitcoin fell further to around $76,850 on Sept. 11, 2026. The key factor influencing pressure on the FED to raise rates in September is the U.S. August CPI report, which the BLS will release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. This will be the last major inflation report before the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting. If CPI, particularly components related to core PCE, comes in above expectations, the probability of a FED rate hike could rise further.
The August PPI released Thursday rose 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, but rose 5.4% year over year, indicating that producer prices remain elevated. After the PPI release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September rising above 73%. FED Chair Kevin Warsh has recently continued to emphasize the importance of inflation and financial conditions.
Dow Jones Survey: August CPI Expected to Rise 3.4% Year Over Year
The Dow Jones survey showed that the market expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year in August. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year.
Nomura economists said that the final decision at this FOMC meeting will depend largely on CPI because most price components in PCE are derived from CPI data. Nomura still expects no rate hike in September, but if August CPI, particularly components related to PCE calculations, comes in significantly above expectations, the possibility of further monetary tightening next week will increase substantially. The importance of CPI data lies in the fact that even a small surprise could rewrite interest-rate pricing.
Oil Prices Break Above $100, September Rate Hike Becomes the Likely Outcome
U.S. crude oil prices broke above $100 per barrel this week as the conflict in the Middle East continues longer than expected. Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, said that at the beginning of September, the FED’s rate decision for this month was still close to a 50-50 call, but the sharp rise in energy prices in September likely tipped the balance toward a rate hike.
He believes two factors could still change the outcome at the last moment: first, a major surprise in Friday’s CPI data; second, the United States and Iran suddenly reaching an agreement that drives oil prices significantly lower. Even if August CPI has not yet fully reflected the impact of the skyrocketing oil prices in September, the FED must also consider the potential pass-through of persistently high energy prices into inflation over the coming months.
Wall Street Journal: Iran Has Resumed Ballistic Missile Production
According to an exclusive report by The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 10, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials revealed that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production at underground facilities using stockpiled components. Key facts include:
· Iran is assembling liquid-fuel and solid-fuel missiles at multiple underground facilities, including the Khojir missile facility in southeastern Iran.
· A U.S. official said Iran may have resumed production after signing an interim peace agreement with the United States in June 2026; production is currently below prewar levels.
· U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell said that the United States had “destroyed as much as 90% of Iran’s drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base.”
· An Iranian official told the Fars News Agency: “Soon, you will see the tip of this iceberg.”
· CBS News reported that from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, Iran fired several ballistic missiles at U.S. military aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan in response to the United States striking five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday.
The conflict has entered its sixth month, and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting around 20% of the global oil supply. Trump said Wednesday that the conflict would end “immediately” after the midterm elections, but later acknowledged that it could continue until after the November elections.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the U.S. August CPI be released, and what are the market expectations?
The U.S. August CPI will be released by the BLS at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 12, 2026. The Dow Jones survey showed that the market expects headline CPI to rise 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, while core CPI is expected to rise 2.4% year over year and 0.2% month over month.
What is the current September rate-hike probability shown by CME FedWatch?
Based on data released after the August PPI on Thursday, Sept. 10, CME FedWatch showed the probability of the FED raising rates by 25 bps at the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting rising above 73%.
What are the key details regarding Iran’s resumption of ballistic missile production?
According to The Wall Street Journal’s exclusive report on Sept. 10, Iran is assembling missiles at multiple underground facilities, including the Khojir facility, and may have resumed production after the interim peace agreement in June 2026. The U.S. Department of Defense said it had destroyed as much as 90% of the relevant industrial base, but Iranian officials said the country’s defense capabilities would continue to improve.
