Gold Futures Rebound to $4,467.50 as Fed Rate Hike Fears Ease

Gold futures rebounded on Aug 12 (local time), closing at $4,467.50 per ounce, up 0.6%, with intraday prices reaching $4,502.70 — the highest level since early June. The rally followed US July inflation and employment data that reduced Federal Reserve rate hike concerns, attracting bargain buyers after a months-long correction. Gold prices had plunged 25% from their late January record of $5,318 per ounce to $3,990 in late June amid hawkish Fed leadership and prolonged high-rate expectations.

Gold Futures Reach Two-Month High on Aug 12

On the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) on Aug 12 (local time), December US gold futures closed at $4,467.50 per ounce, up 0.6% from the previous trading day. During the session, prices surged to $4,502.70, marking the highest level since early June — approximately two months prior.

US July CPI and Employment Data Reduce Fed Rate Hike Probability

According to the US Department of Labor, July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, meeting market expectations. July non-farm employment decreased by 23,000, and employment figures for the previous two months were revised downward to 169,000, confirming employment weakness. Following the CPI release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September reflected by CME FedWatch dropped from 46% before the announcement to around 40%.

Global Central Banks Purchase 288.9t Net in Q2

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global central banks' net gold purchases in Q2 totaled 288.9 tonnes, a 62% increase compared to the same period last year. The People's Bank of China continued its net gold purchasing trend for 20 consecutive months, supporting demand.

Korean Gold ETFs Post Weekly Gains Above 3%

According to ETF Check, among the top 10 commodity ETF returns over the recent one-week period, positions 3 through 10 were all precious metals-related products. TIGER Gold/Silver Futures (H) gained 3.37%, ACE KRX Gold Spot rose 3.15%, and TIGER Gold Futures increased 3.10%.

Gold Prices Fell 25% from January Peak to June Low

Gold futures reached a record high of $5,318 per ounce on a closing basis in late January. Prices then fell to $3,990 by late June due to hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appointment concerns and prolonged high-rate expectations — a 25% decline from the peak. Gold subsequently traded in a range with resistance around the $4,000 level.

Analyst Forecasts $5,000 per Ounce by Year-End

Choi Ye-chan, researcher at Sangsangin Securities, stated, "Technical indicator normalization has been confirmed after approximately six months of price and time adjustment," and "Gold futures prices have broken above the downtrend resistance line thanks to improved macro environment." Choi added, "Considering historical statistical patterns where gold recovered to 90% of previous highs over 11-12 months after confirming a bottom following historical peaks, a rise to around $5,000 per ounce by year-end is possible."

FAQ

What price did gold futures reach on Aug 12? Gold futures closed at $4,467.50 per ounce on Aug 12 (local time), up 0.6%, with intraday prices reaching $4,502.70 — the highest level since early June.

How much did global central banks purchase in Q2? According to the World Gold Council, global central banks' net gold purchases in Q2 totaled 288.9 tonnes, a 62% increase compared to the same period last year. The People's Bank of China continued net gold purchases for 20 consecutive months.

What is the analyst forecast for gold prices by year-end? Choi Ye-chan of Sangsangin Securities forecasted that gold prices could rise to around $5,000 per ounce by year-end, based on historical recovery patterns following major corrections.