ARK Predicts Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement Before Year-End 2026, Says Shareholders Better Off Combined

According to ARK Investment Management, Tesla and SpaceX are expected to announce a merger before the end of 2026, though the deal would likely not be completed in the same year. ARK's Chief Futurist Brett Winton stated that shareholders of both Elon Musk-led companies would be "net better off" if the entities combined, though SpaceX would need to offer a premium to secure Tesla shareholder approval.

Tesla's China business, which generates about 20% of annual sales, presents a geopolitical complication due to SpaceX's U.S. defense contracts. Winton noted that Tesla could potentially ring-fence its Chinese assets but acknowledged the issue as a challenge for merger structuring. ARK believes Tesla's future value will primarily stem from robotaxis rather than its Shanghai factory.