Polymarket returns to the US market in Beta mode, and the prediction market is at a compliance turning point.

On November 11, 2025, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket launched a limited test version in the United States, marking the platform's official return to the U.S. market after moving overseas in 2022 due to an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Founder Shayne Coplan confirmed at the Cantor Fitzgerald crypto and AI infrastructure conference in Miami that the U.S. exchange has entered the operational phase, allowing selected users to place bets on real contracts.

This return comes at a time when the U.S. gambling industry is being reshaped by a surge in betting due to real-world events. Polymarket challenges traditional sports bookmakers with its exchange-style pricing model, and the platform's valuation has reached 12-15 billion dollars.

Polymarket Returns to the US: Prediction Market Enters a New Era of Compliance

Polymarket's road to returning to the U.S. has been a three-year journey filled with twists and turns. In 2022, the platform moved its operations overseas after paying a $1.4 million fine to the CFTC for regulatory violations, while the decision by the U.S. Department of Justice and the CFTC to terminate their investigation in early 2025 cleared the way for a return to the market. A key turning point was Polymarket's acquisition of QCX—this company possesses CFTC-approved derivatives exchange and clearinghouse operational qualifications, laying the foundation for compliant operations. Coplan emphasized, “This is the fastest market entry speed ever; it's definitely a daunting task, but our team did it.”

The carefully designed testing phase reflects Polymarket's emphasis on compliance. The platform adopts a phased rollout strategy, with the first batch of users undergoing strict screening and all trading contracts passing compliance review. This cautious attitude reflects the sensitive position of the prediction market within the current legal framework and showcases the company's commitment to long-term stable operations. The limited launch plan reported by Bloomberg last month for November has now entered a substantial phase, providing U.S. users with a new channel for participation in the prediction market.

Competition in the prediction market heats up: Kalshi and FanDuel join the fray

Polymarket's return coincides with a period of explosive growth for the American prediction market. Its direct competitor, Kalshi Inc., has been offering services to US users for years, and online betting giant FanDuel also announced on November 12 that it will launch its own prediction market product in December. This collective influx reflects the surge in demand for betting on real-world events, as evidenced by Polymarket's skyrocketing popularity during last year's presidential election.

Comparison of Key Participants in the U.S. Prediction Market

Polymarket: exchange model, users bidirectional pricing

Kalshi: CFTC registered contract market, legally operated for many years

FanDuel: Traditional bookmakers transforming, launching new products in December

Betting scale: The total amount of the presidential election contract once exceeded 200 million USD.

The fundamental difference from traditional betting companies lies in the business model. Polymarket adopts an exchange-style architecture that allows users to self-price and supports both trading parties, rather than betting against a traditional bookmaker. Coplan sharply pointed out: “The sports betting model is by no means optimal; the bookmaker monopolizes the pricing power, betting against users every time, and worse, if users make money, they might even get banned.” This model, which offers greater transparency and fewer restrictions, could reshape the competitive landscape of the U.S. betting industry.

Behind the $12 Billion Valuation: The Capital Attraction and Growth Logic of Polymarket

At the same time as the operational restart, Polymarket's capital operations are equally noteworthy. The platform is seeking financing at a valuation of $12-15 billion, while the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s potential investment commitment of up to $2 billion further validates its business prospects. This valuation level reflects the market's recognition of the potential of the prediction market sector and also demonstrates Polymarket's leading advantages in technology architecture and user base.

From a financial perspective, the profit model of prediction markets has significant economies of scale. The platform profits from trading fees without bearing the risk exposure of traditional gambling companies. As trading volume increases, unit operating costs continue to decline, and profit margins are expected to improve. This capital efficiency is particularly valuable in the current technology investment environment, which also explains why institutional investors have a favorable view of Polymarket.

User Experience Upgrade: Full-Scene Layout from Political Prediction to Pop Culture Betting

Polymarket's core competitive advantage lies in its technical architecture. The platform is built on blockchain, ensuring transaction transparency and tamper-proof results, while optimizing transaction speed and costs through Layer2 solutions. Smart contracts automatically execute the settlement process, eliminating the common risks of manual intervention in traditional gambling, providing users with a fairer participation environment.

Polymarket platform technical features

Blockchain Basics: Multi-chain support such as Ethereum and Polygon

Transaction speed: capable of processing thousands of transactions per second

Fees: 1-2% of the transaction amount as platform income

Settlement mechanism: Smart contracts execute automatically

User Interface: Mobile-first design, intuitive prediction market visualization

In terms of user experience, Polymarket is committed to lowering the participation threshold for prediction markets. The platform offers a diverse range of contract options, from political events and financial markets to pop culture, with a trading interface that simulates the clean design of a stock exchange, supporting advanced trading features such as limit orders and market orders. At the same time, the built-in educational resources help new users understand the operating mechanisms of prediction markets, promoting healthy participation behavior.

Compliance Challenges Persist: Regulatory Differences Across Multiple States in the U.S. and Future Directions

The legal status of prediction markets in the United States remains a complex issue. Although the CFTC's regulatory authority over event contracts is clear, the specific boundaries are still evolving. Polymarket addresses this challenge through the acquisition of licensed entities and a proactive compliance strategy, emphasizing the nature of information aggregation rather than gambling, which has more similarities with exchange trading.

The regulatory differences among states create another layer of complexity. Some states have an open attitude towards prediction markets, while others have more restrictions. Polymarket's phased rollout strategy allows it to adjust operations based on the requirements of different jurisdictions, ensuring full compliance. This flexibility is crucial in the highly decentralized regulatory environment in the United States and provides a compliance pathway that other encryption-native projects can reference.

The industry inflection point has arrived: Polymarket leads the mainstreaming process of prediction markets

The return of Polymarket may catalyze the mainstream adoption of prediction markets. As an information aggregation tool, prediction markets have demonstrated astonishing accuracy in predicting event outcomes, a value that is increasingly recognized by institutional investors. From corporate decision-making to risk management, the application scenarios of prediction markets continue to expand, driving their evolution from marginal innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure.

In the long term, prediction markets may integrate with traditional financial products such as derivatives and insurance, creating new risk hedging tools. This integration not only expands the market size but also improves capital allocation efficiency. Polymarket, as a technological pioneer, is expected to play a key role in this transformation, reshaping the way people manage future uncertainties.

Future Outlook

For investors, Polymarket represents a scarce asset at the intersection of encryption and traditional finance. Its network effects are strengthened as the user base grows, creating a positive feedback loop between platform value and trading volume. At the same time, the gradual advancement of clear regulations reduces policy uncertainty, providing better visibility for long-term investments.

However, risks still exist. The potential fluctuations in the regulatory environment, the erosion of market share due to intensified competition, and operational disruptions caused by technical vulnerabilities all need to be carefully assessed. Investors should pay attention to key indicators such as platform user retention rate, contract diversity, and compliance progress to make rational judgments. In the balance between innovation and risk, Polymarket's journey in the United States will provide important references for the entire prediction market sector.