U.S. government shutdown ends after 40 days! The Senate passes the bill, and the SEC resumes crypto regulation on Friday.

After several Democratic and Republican senators jointly passed the funding bill, the U.S. government shutdown, which lasted over 40 days, is moving toward reopening. On Monday, the Senate voted on the “Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act for Fiscal Year 2026,” which ultimately passed with 60 votes in favor and 40 against. The prediction platform Polymarket has adjusted its expectations, now believing that the U.S. government and the SEC will resume normal operations by Friday.

Longest Government Shutdown Crisis Resolved, Senate Passes Bill

(Source: Polymarket)

The U.S. government shutdown lasted more than 40 days, making it the longest in the country’s history. On Monday evening, the Senate voted on a bill called the “Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act for Fiscal Year 2026,” which was approved with 60 votes in favor and 40 against. This result shows that some Democratic and Republican senators crossed party lines to break weeks of deadlock.

While a 60:40 vote ratio is not overwhelming, it meets the threshold needed for the Senate to pass important legislation. The core goal of this funding bill is to provide continuous funding for the federal government, preventing a longer shutdown that could cause more severe damage to the economy and people’s livelihoods. The bill is expected to fund the government until January 31, 2026, meaning that in the coming months, the government will have stable financial support to maintain public services and agency operations.

However, Senate approval does not mean the government shutdown crisis is entirely over. The bill still needs to be passed by the House of Representatives and signed into law by President Donald Trump to become effective. Since Tuesday is a U.S. federal holiday, the House is unlikely to reconvene until Wednesday to vote on the bill. This means that even if everything goes smoothly, the government may not resume normal operations until Thursday or Friday.

The prediction platform Polymarket has adjusted its forecast, now expecting the government to restart by Friday, likely based on confidence in the House’s vote outcome. Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can bet on various event outcomes; its forecasts often reflect market collective intelligence and information integration. The expectation of a Friday restart indicates that the market generally believes the House will pass the bill and Trump will sign it into law smoothly.

Schedule for SEC and Federal Agency Reopening

During the shutdown, many federal agencies have temporarily furloughed employees and scaled back operations due to funding shortages. This large-scale furlough and operational reduction have significantly impacted public services, economic regulation, and national security in the U.S. From delays in social security benefits to national park closures, visa processing delays, and hindrances in social welfare distribution, the shutdown’s ripple effects have affected millions of Americans’ daily lives.

Some agencies, such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are expected to reopen the day after the funding bill takes effect, after being scaled down for over 40 days. The SEC’s operational plan allows staff to return to work on the “next normal business day” following the bill’s enactment. This schedule suggests that if the bill is signed into law on Thursday, the SEC could reopen as early as Friday.

The SEC shutdown has had a notable impact on financial markets and the cryptocurrency industry. During the shutdown, the SEC could not process new securities registration applications, review financial reports, investigate potential fraud cases, or take enforcement actions. For companies awaiting IPO approvals, crypto projects seeking regulatory guidance, and investors needing regulatory clarity, the SEC shutdown has caused significant uncertainty and business delays.

Main Impacts During the Government Shutdown

SEC Regulatory Pause: Suspension of securities approvals, enforcement investigations, and crypto regulation guidance

Federal Employee Furloughs: Hundreds of thousands of federal employees unpaid or working without pay

Public Service Disruptions: Closure of national parks, delays in visa processing, hindrance of social welfare payments

Economic Uncertainty: Postponement of business investment decisions, suspension of government contracts, impact on GDP growth

Even if the bill is immediately passed and signed into law, employees may take some time to return to work. Many agencies need to restart systems, recall staff, and handle accumulated backlog, which could take days or weeks. For the SEC, a shutdown of over 40 days means a backlog of applications, investigations, and enforcement actions, and the workload upon reopening will be enormous.

Progress on Cryptocurrency Market Structure Legislation Faces Delays

On Monday, leaders of the Senate Agriculture Committee released a discussion draft of a comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure bill. Previously, reports indicated that Democratic and Republican lawmakers had negotiated for weeks, while the House had already passed a version of the bill about four months ago. The bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for the crypto market, including definitions of digital assets, responsible regulatory agencies, and investor protections.

The government shutdown may have delayed the bill’s progress. Republican leaders initially expected the bill to pass through the Agriculture and Banking Committees by the end of October and be signed into law by 2026. However, the over-40-day shutdown disrupted this timeline, leading to canceled committee meetings and staff being unable to work normally, halting the bill’s review process.

While Republicans still have ways to pass this legislation, North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis warned that delaying the passage until after January or February could weaken the bill’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections. This warning highlights the reality of U.S. politics: as midterms approach, lawmakers focus more on short-term voter interests and political positioning, making it harder to garner bipartisan support for complex, technical bills like crypto regulation.

The crypto industry is hopeful about this bill, as it would provide legal certainty for digital assets long operating in regulatory gray areas. During the Biden administration, the SEC took enforcement actions against several crypto firms, but the lack of clear legislative guidance made these actions controversial. Under the Trump administration, a more crypto-friendly stance was adopted, but without congressional legislation, regulatory policies remain subject to change with political shifts.

The Senate Agriculture Committee’s draft indicates initial bipartisan consensus on some core issues, but disagreements remain on details such as stablecoin regulation standards, the legal status of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and registration requirements for exchanges. The delay caused by the shutdown makes these negotiations more urgent, as the window of opportunity in Congress is shrinking.

Trump’s Signature as the Final Key Variable

Although the Senate has passed the funding bill, whether the government shutdown crisis is truly over still depends on two key variables: the House vote outcome and President Trump’s willingness to sign. The House, controlled by Republicans, is expected to support the Senate-passed bill, but internal factions exist, and some conservative members may oppose specific provisions.

President Trump’s stance is even more unpredictable. While a prolonged shutdown is damaging to his political image, he might refuse to sign or demand amendments if the bill contains terms he cannot accept or if he seeks to leverage the situation to pressure Congress for other political gains. Historically, Trump has changed positions at the last minute, which could undermine the efforts of Congress.