Countdown to XRP price explosion? Ripple's bank license approval is nearing the finish line, favourable information from ETF and regulatory progress may help reach new highs.

XRP traders are迎接 the climax of a key event at the end of October, which may trigger a爆发式上涨 or a大幅回调. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) will conclude its 120-day review period for Ripple's U.S. banking license on November 1. Additionally, as the U.S. Senate makes progress on the government shutdown deadlock, market optimism for the approval of the XRP现货 ETF is rising. Affected by the cooling expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the XRP price fell 2.06% to $2.5522 on October 29, but key regulatory and macro events will dominate its year-end trend.

Key regulatory milestone approaching: Ripple's U.S. bank license review is nearing completion

Ripple's ambition to expand traditional financial services is facing critical regulatory approvals. The OCC's 120-day review period for Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license is nearing its end. Ripple submitted the application on July 2, which means the review period will conclude on November 1. It is noteworthy that the OCC's funding comes from its member institutions, so it is not affected by the U.S. government shutdown, allowing the review process to continue.

The significance of this license for XRP is substantial:

1. Enhance institutional demand: Obtaining a license will allow Ripple to deeply integrate into traditional banking services, such as cross-border payments, remittances, and settlements. This is expected to drive institutional demand and practical applications for XRP as a bridge currency.
2. Strengthening the global payment network: Establishing connections with traditional banking infrastructure, payment networks, and correspondent banking relationships will further enhance Ripple's ability to access global payment rails and liquidity.

Previously, analysts were reserved about the impact of bank licenses on XRP prices. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently made it clear that as the company continues to expand its Main Street business through acquisitions, XRP remains at the core of all Ripple's operations, hinting at its strategic importance. While the formal review period of 120 days will come to an end, some analysts expect that the OCC's final assessment may take 12 to 18 months.

Optimistic ETF Approval Prospects: Senate Progress Eases SEC Stalemate

In addition to the bank license, the potential approval of the XRP-spot ETF is another major positive factor driving the price. The prolonged 29-day government shutdown previously extended the Senate's deadlock, leading to a shortage of personnel at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which in turn delayed the approval of the pending XRP-spot ETF application.

Latest news shows that U.S. senators have made progress in ending the government shutdown. Once the government reopens, the SEC can resume full operations and approve the pending XRP-spot ETF. Given the significant impact that Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF has on Bitcoin price movements, the successful launch of the XRP-spot ETF is expected to unlock a large influx of institutional funds, bringing strong year-end pump momentum for XRP.

Technical Analysis: XRP Price Faces Double EMA Resistance

(Source: TradingView)

After macroeconomic headwinds and two consecutive days of decline, the XRP price is currently trading around 2.5522 dollars, and is below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), with a bearish technical outlook. However, a key event is approaching that is expected to reverse this situation.

Key technical levels to watch:

• Immediate support: $2.50, followed by $2.35 and $2.20. Dropping below $2.20 may test the psychological support level of $2.00.
• Key Resistance: 50-day EMA (2.6779 USD) and 200-day EMA (2.6109 USD). If it can effectively break through and stabilize above 2.62 USD, it is expected to challenge 2.80 USD.

Short-term bullish scenario (breakthrough path of 3.00 dollars):

If the U.S. Senate passes the temporary funding bill, BlackRock submits the S-1 filing for the iShares XRP Trust and receives SEC approval, Ripple obtains a U.S. banking license, and mainstream companies consider using XRP as a reserve asset, the combination of these factors may drive XRP to break through $2.62 and $2.80, potentially challenging the psychological barrier of $3.00 and possibly extending upward to the historical high of $3.66.

Short-term bearish scenario (risk of falling below $2.50):

On the contrary, if the deadlock in the U.S. Senate continues, BlackRock denies its plans for an XRP Spot ETF, OCC delays or rejects Ripple's bank license application, or the traditional SWIFT system remains dominant, these adverse factors could push XRP towards the $2.50 support level and expose the critical lines at $2.35 and $2.20. From the chart, XRP's price is operating within a descending channel, with each rebound being broken at lower price levels, indicating that the downward pressure is still present.

Conclusion

The recent trend of XRP will largely depend on the evolution of macro political and regulatory events, particularly the OCC's decision on Ripple's banking license and the approval progress of the XRP Spot ETF. Within a compact oscillation range, the market is preparing for the upcoming high volatility. Investors should closely monitor U.S. political and regulatory dynamics, as any positive developments in these tail factors could serve as a key catalyst for a strong rebound of XRP.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.