AUD/USD may revisit the year-to-date high of 0.6625 – UOB Group

I’ve been watching the Aussie dollar’s movements closely, and it seems we’re stuck in a consolidation phase between 0.6560 and 0.6605. What’s really catching my eye though is the rapid improvement in upward momentum - this could push AUD right back to testing that 2025 high of 0.6625, according to analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia at UOB.

Rapid improvement in upward momentum

Looking at the 24-hour view, AUD shot up to 0.6598 on Monday. When it was hovering around 0.6590 on Tuesday, analysts noted that despite strong momentum suggesting continued rises, the negative divergence forming meant we probably wouldn’t reach that critical 0.6625 resistance. True enough, while AUD briefly touched 0.6619, it retreated to close slightly lower at 0.6586 (-0.09%). Momentum indicators are turning neutral now, suggesting we’re likely trapped in this 0.6560-0.6605 range for the moment.

Looking at the 1-3 week outlook, there’s been a significant shift. Back on September 8th (with spot at 0.6550), analysts thought AUD might rise toward 0.6595 but wouldn’t break clearly above. But after reaching 0.6598, they’ve changed their tune - the rapid improvement in upward momentum suggests AUD could indeed revisit that year-to-date high of 0.6625. I’m skeptical it’ll hold above that level though, given broader market uncertainties. This bullish view remains valid as long as the ‘strong support’ at 0.6540 holds.

Personally, I wonder if traders are being too optimistic here. With altcoin markets tumbling 15% in October and broader sentiment worsening across financial markets, can the Aussie dollar really sustain this momentum? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a pullback before any serious attempt at breaking through 0.6625.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.