Pendiri BTC.TOP dari tambang China: Penurunan Bitcoin ke 30.000 dolar pun tidak akan menggoyahkan Strategy, penjualan panik terlalu berlebihan dalam penafsiran.

China's largest Bitcoin mining pool BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer recently posted on X platform, analyzing and easing market panic over Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) potentially being forced to sell large amounts of coins over the past week. He straightforwardly stated that even if Bitcoin drops to $30,000, Strategy's debt-to-asset ratio would only rise from the current 5% to about 10%, far from forcing a sell-off, and the company's "never sell coins" market image will not change in the short term.

Fidelity custody wallet outflow of 45,000 BTC should not be over-interpreted

The source of this panic stems from on-chain analyst estimates: approximately 45,000 Bitcoin (worth about $3 billion) transferred out from a Fidelity custody wallet between May 28 and June 1. Market speculation quickly arose that Strategy had sold these Bitcoins in batches, at an average price of about $66,000. However, Jiang Zhuoer pointed out that this wallet also holds Fidelity's own Bitcoin and spot ETF assets in Ethereum, and attributing the fund outflow directly to Strategy is purely speculative, not confirmed selling activity.

He posted in Chinese on Sunday, directly stating that this wave of panic-driven interpretation is "exaggerated." Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline last week, and the news that Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 ignited market sentiment, pushing BTC close to $62,000 and hitting a half-year low. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin traded around $63,400 on Monday, with nearly 10% decline over the past week.

Debt only accounts for 5% of assets, stress test at $30,000 also only 10%

Jiang Zhuoer’s core analysis is based on Strategy’s balance sheet. He estimates that Strategy’s total liabilities currently only account for about 5% of its Bitcoin assets. Even if Bitcoin plunges from around $62,900 to $30,000, this ratio would only rise to about 10%. For a listed company holding over 770,000 BTC with assets exceeding $40 billion, such leverage levels are well below warning thresholds.

In other words, Strategy has no urgent pressure to sell Bitcoin to repay debts. Any argument that a price decline will force the company into "mass liquidation" lacks support from its balance sheet. This also echoes earlier reports and analyst concerns about a possible "LUNA-style death spiral," but Strategy’s debt structure and algorithmic stablecoin are fundamentally different.

STRC preferred shares: selling old for new, net buyer stance unchanged

Jiang Zhuoer also provided a detailed financial rationale for Strategy’s main fundraising tool, STRC preferred shares. STRC pays an 11.5% annual dividend, distributed monthly. Strategy’s strategy is to sell the Bitcoin with the lowest cost basis and oldest age, realizing accounting profits to pay dividends; meanwhile, the funds raised from new STRC issuance are reinvested to buy new Bitcoin.

The key point: "As long as the buying speed remains greater than the selling speed, Strategy remains a net buyer." Jiang Zhuoer further pointed out that the real concern for STRC holders is not the company selling coins, but the company "refusing to sell coins and defaulting on dividends." Therefore, Strategy’s willingness to sell coins to fulfill obligations actually alleviates investors’ biggest uncertainty and sends a positive signal to the market valuation of STRC.

Counterarguments from long-term bear market advocates

However, not everyone in the market shares Jiang Zhuoer’s optimism. Some analysts argue that if Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market, Strategy’s interest expenses will continue to accumulate, and ultimately, regardless of management’s intentions, the company may be forced to sell more Bitcoin. In other words, short-term asset-to-liability stress tests are static analyses; what truly matters is dynamic cash flow pressure. If STRC’s new issuance stalls or dividend payments deplete reserves, Strategy’s "never sell coins" myth could be challenged.

This debate is set against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s nearly 10% drop last week due to Strategy’s coin sales. However, Jiang Zhuoer’s perspective from China’s leading mining industry offers a different view from Wall Street analysts: the Asian mining community generally believes Strategy’s asset-liability situation is more stable than the market perceives, and recent panic selling might instead be a misjudged opportunity for accumulation.