Fundador de la piscina minera china BTC.TOP: La caída del Bitcoin a 30,000 dólares no puede conmover la estrategia, la interpretación de la venta masiva de pánico está exagerada

China's largest Bitcoin mining pool BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer recently posted on the X platform to calm market fears over Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) potentially being forced to sell large amounts of Bitcoin. He stated that even if Bitcoin drops to $30,000, Strategy’s debt-to-asset ratio would only rise from 5% to 10%, far from forcing a liquidation, and the company's "never sell Bitcoin" market image would not change in the short term.

Fidelity custody wallet outflow of 45,000 BTC should not be over-interpreted

The source of this panic stems from on-chain analyst estimates: approximately 45,000 Bitcoin (worth about $3 billion) transferred out of a Fidelity custody wallet between May 28 and June 1. Market speculation suggests Strategy has been selling these Bitcoins in batches, at an average price of about $66,000. However, Jiang Zhuoer pointed out that the wallet also holds Fidelity’s own Bitcoin and spot ETF assets in Ethereum, and attributing the outflow directly to Strategy is purely speculative, not confirmed selling activity.

He posted in Chinese on Sunday, directly stating that this panic "has been exaggerated." Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline last week, and the news of Strategy selling Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 triggered market sentiment, with BTC approaching $62,000 and hitting a six-month low. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin traded around $63,400 on Monday, with nearly 10% decline over the past week.

Debt only accounts for 5% of assets, stress test at $30,000 only 10%

Jiang Zhuoer’s analysis is based on Strategy’s balance sheet. He estimates that Strategy’s total liabilities are only about 5% of its Bitcoin holdings. Even if Bitcoin drops from around $62,900 to $30,000, this ratio would only rise to about 10%. For a publicly listed company holding over 770,000 Bitcoins with assets exceeding $40 billion, such leverage levels are well below warning thresholds.

In other words, Strategy has no urgent need to sell Bitcoin to cover debts, and any narrative suggesting imminent "mass liquidation" due to falling prices lacks support from the balance sheet. This also echoes earlier concerns about a potential "LUNA-style death spiral," with Strategy’s debt structure and algorithmic stablecoins being fundamentally different.

STRC preferred shares: selling old for new, net buyer stance unchanged

Jiang Zhuoer also provided a detailed defense of Strategy’s core financing tool, the STRC preferred shares. STRC pays an 11.5% annual dividend, distributed monthly. Strategy’s strategy is to sell the Bitcoin with the lowest cost basis and oldest age, realizing accounting profits to pay dividends; meanwhile, the funds raised from issuing new STRC are reinvested to buy new Bitcoin.

The key point: "As long as the rate of buying remains higher than selling, Strategy remains a net buyer." Jiang Zhuoer further pointed out that the real concern for STRC holders is not the company selling Bitcoin, but the risk of the company "refusing to sell Bitcoin and defaulting on dividends." Therefore, Strategy’s willingness to sell Bitcoin to fulfill its obligations actually reduces investor uncertainty and is a positive signal for STRC’s market valuation.

Long-term bear market skeptics’ rebuttal

However, not everyone in the market shares Jiang Zhuoer’s optimism. Some analysts argue that if Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market, Strategy’s interest expenses will continue to accumulate, and ultimately, regardless of management’s intentions, the company might be forced to sell more Bitcoin. In other words, short-term asset-liability stress tests are static analyses; what truly matters is dynamic cash flow pressure. If new STRC issuance stalls or dividend payments deplete reserves, Strategy’s "never sell Bitcoin" myth could be challenged.

This debate is set against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s nearly 10% drop last week following Strategy’s selling news. Jiang Zhuoer, from a leading Chinese mining company, offers a different perspective from Wall Street analysts: the Asian mining industry generally views Strategy’s asset and liability situation as more stable than the market perceives. The recent panic-driven sell-off might instead be an opportunity for strategic positioning after a misjudged sell-off.