Just now my phone popped up a red dot: a certain public chain needs to upgrade and maintain, and the group immediately started guessing "Will there be a big migration"… I watched and felt a bit amused and a bit anxious. Recently, I’ve been messing around with address profiling, tags, clustering, and fund flow analysis, basically labeling wallets with personas, but I increasingly feel I can only trust it about sixty or seventy percent: the same person can have ten or more addresses, exchanges/multisigs get mixed in, and that "smart money" line on the chart looks like a script. But emotions are very honest — once there’s a large transfer on-chain, the narrative resonates, and everyone automatically fills in "they know insider information." I now prefer to treat profiling as a thermometer, not a navigation tool, waiting until after maintenance to see where the real flow goes, anyway not in a hurry to bet on others.