According to Wells Fargo chief economist Tom Porcelli in a CNBC interview, he opposes market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, expecting the central bank to hold rates through the year. Porcelli argued that current inflation stems from tariffs and energy—both supply shocks the Fed cannot address through rate increases. He noted that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation runs near 2.5%, close to the Fed's 2% target, and raising rates would hurt growth without curbing those prices. Market pricing, however, shows 55% odds of a 2026 hike on Polymarket, with CME FedWatch data indicating 59.2% odds for October and 77.1% by December. The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% all year.
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