According to BlockBeats, on July 18, Polymarket lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by year-end 2026 to 32%, marking a historic low since the prediction market launched in January. The odds have dropped approximately 30 percentage points from their launch level and fallen sharply from a high of 82% in February, as the Senate legislative schedule tightens and bipartisan support remains elusive.
The primary obstacle is disagreement over ethical provisions regarding government officials' digital asset conflicts of interest. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego previously stated he would not support the bill in a Senate vote unless it includes bipartisan-backed ethics clauses. With Congress entering its August recess, market expectations for the bill's passage this year continue to decline.
