According to VanEck, Bitcoin has fallen from a record high of roughly $126,080 in October to trade recently in the low-$60,000s, a 50% decline. The asset manager's Thursday report frames this slump as tracking Bitcoin's historical four-year halving cycle, a recurring feature of the asset's market structure rather than a break from it.
VanEck's GEO framework, which tracks Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity, currently shows two of three signals in neutral territory with ecosystem leverage constructive, pointing to early signs of a bottom forming. Separately, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the market overall, a pattern that analyst MorenoDV noted has appeared at every prior major cycle bottom.
