September 9, 2026, StoneX Financial initiated coverage of Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) for the first time, assigning a "Buy" rating with a $170 price target. As of September 8 close, Robinhood’s stock traded at $117.34. StoneX’s $170 target implies roughly 45% upside.
In a research note, Mark Palmer, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at StoneX, said Robinhood is seeing "accelerating growth" across nearly every operating metric. The retail-trading platform is undergoing a deep business transformation—from a simple trading intermediary to a blockchain infrastructure and prediction market operator.
Why Robinhood’s crypto business is stuck in an income slowdown
One data point in StoneX’s report stands out: in Q2 2026, Robinhood’s total revenue rose 32% year over year to $1.31 billion, a record high. But revenue from the cryptocurrency business fell 38% year over year to $100 million, accounting for only 8% of the company’s total revenue. A year earlier, that figure was 16%.
Crypto used to be a key revenue driver for Robinhood. Now it has shrunk to its lowest share since Q3 2023. Retail crypto trading volume declined 36% year over year, and crypto assets as a share of customers’ total assets under custody are down to just 7%.
This structural shift reflects two problems: first, overall retail trading activity in the crypto market has fallen in 2026; second, Robinhood’s own product focus is shifting away from pure crypto trading toward a broader suite of blockchain services. As crypto’s slice of the revenue pie contracts, it effectively forces the company to find a new engine for growth.
Can the Robinhood Chain become the key lever for valuation?
One of StoneX’s core reasons for the $170 target is Robinhood Chain, a Layer 2 blockchain that went live with a mainnet launch on July 1, 2026.
On-chain data shows performance that has exceeded market expectations. As of September 3, daily fee revenue for Robinhood Chain reached about $4.59 million. As of August 29, its annualized revenue was close to $39 million. In the past 24 hours, the chain’s Gas fees were higher than those of any other Layer 2 network on Ethereum.
StoneX also modeled projections: Robinhood Chain could generate $980 million in revenue by fiscal year 2029, with a profit margin of 85%. If this forecast holds, then blockchain alone could contribute a profit volume close to the company’s total current full-year revenue.
In the report, Palmer noted that Robinhood has been "acquiring exchanges and blockchain infrastructure at software-like profit margins." That observation gets to the essence of Robinhood’s strategy: it isn’t building a typical Layer 2 network. Instead, it’s using an internet company’s cost structure to operate a scalable financial infrastructure.
Why prediction markets are seen as the second growth pillar
In addition to its Layer 2 blockchain, StoneX also listed prediction markets as a key growth pillar for Robinhood.
In Q2 2026, Robinhood’s event contract trading volume reached 13.6 billion contracts. During the World Cup alone, contracts traded exceeded 5 billion. These activities generated about $156 million in revenue, up 50% quarter over quarter.
This revenue scale already surpasses Robinhood’s crypto business revenue ($100 million) and stock business revenue ($129 million) in the same period. Prediction markets have grown from a peripheral offering into the second-largest revenue source in under a year.
On September 9, Robinhood announced a collaboration with Crypto.com and OG.com. It will hold equity in both companies and route a portion of event contracts to OG.com. JB Mackenzie, Vice President of Futures & Prediction Markets at Robinhood, said distributing event contracts across multiple trading venues "helps build a stronger, more diverse, and more resilient market."
This setup suggests Robinhood is upgrading prediction markets from a single product into a platform business—expanding liquidity depth and product coverage by connecting to third-party trading venues.
Does tokenized stocks create a new valuation narrative?
Before StoneX released its report, a Bernstein analyst raised Robinhood’s price target from $130 to $160 in July, citing the same growth outlook for tokenized stocks and prediction markets.
On September 7, 2026, Robinhood officially launched on-chain trading for tokenized stocks. According to Bernstein’s tracked data, tokenized stocks now account for 27% of Robinhood Chain’s trading volume. Bernstein projects that as on-chain stock token trading takes on a larger share of activity, Robinhood Chain could generate up to $160 million per year in fee revenue by 2028.
From a broader perspective, Bernstein expects tokenized real-world assets to reach a market size of $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. If that trend holds, Robinhood—one of the earliest mainstream brokers to move into tokenized stocks—could gain a first-mover advantage in this incremental market.
StoneX’s $170 price target doesn’t separately list any valuation contribution from stock tokenization. But within StoneX’s overall valuation model for Robinhood Chain, tokenized stock trading is clearly an important component of revenue.
What structural constraints does Robinhood’s business transition face?
Beyond the optimistic expectations embedded in the $170 target, several structural constraints also deserve attention.
First, the crypto business slowdown has not shown a clear turning point. In Q2 2026, crypto revenue was only 8% of total company revenue, and it has fallen for three straight quarters. Robinhood Chain’s on-chain revenue is currently only about 14% of annualized crypto business revenue, meaning it can’t fully offset the contraction in core crypto trading in the near term.
Second, regulatory uncertainty for prediction markets. Event contracts have different legal status across jurisdictions, and Robinhood’s collaboration model with third-party platforms faces compliance review risks.
Third, the competitive landscape for Layer 2 blockchains. Although Robinhood Chain has performed strongly in its early launch phase, the Ethereum Layer 2 space already contains multiple mature networks with deep ecosystem moats. To sustain the current fee-revenue growth pace and achieve StoneX’s forecast of $980 million in annual revenue, Robinhood needs continued network effects and ongoing development of its developer ecosystem.
Fourth, the pace of regulatory progress for tokenized stocks. Even though demand for these assets is strong, it will still take time to完善 regulatory frameworks, which could affect how quickly tokenized stock business can scale.
Valuation logic shifts from retail broker to blockchain infrastructure provider
StoneX’s $170 price target is, at its core, a re-pricing of Robinhood’s valuation logic.
Traditional broker valuation models use trading volume, customer asset size, and commission revenue as key variables. But in its report, StoneX incorporates Layer 2 revenue from Robinhood Chain, the platform-like expansion of prediction markets, and the long-term potential of stock tokenization into its valuation framework.
That means the market is reevaluating Robinhood’s identity. It is no longer just a retail-focused stock and crypto trading platform. Instead, it’s a multi-layer fintech entity operating traditional brokerage business, on-chain financial infrastructure, and prediction market platforms at the same time.
Whether the $170 target can be achieved depends on how quickly three key variables evolve: whether Robinhood Chain can generate $980 million in annual revenue before 2029; whether prediction markets can reach a $1.7 billion market size by 2028; and whether stock tokenization can scale and roll out in a compliant way under the regulatory framework.
Summary
StoneX’s first coverage of Robinhood and its $170 price target rest on three pillars: the Layer 2 revenue growth potential of Robinhood Chain, the rapid expansion of the prediction market business, and the long-term narrative of blockchain financial innovation such as stock tokenization. Meanwhile, declining crypto core business, regulatory uncertainty, and the competitive landscape in the Layer 2 space create risks that require ongoing monitoring. Robinhood’s valuation logic is shifting from a retail broker to a blockchain infrastructure provider. The success or failure of this transition will determine whether the $170 target can be realized.
FAQ
Q: What price target did StoneX assign to Robinhood for a Buy rating?
A: StoneX Financial assigned a $170 price target to Robinhood for its Buy rating, implying roughly 45% upside versus the $117.34 closing price on September 8, 2026.
Q: What are StoneX’s main reasons for liking Robinhood?
A: StoneX is mainly bullish on two new businesses at Robinhood—Layer 2 blockchain (Robinhood Chain) and prediction markets. The report notes that Robinhood Chain’s daily fee revenue reached $4.59 million as of September 3, and prediction markets contributed $156 million in revenue in Q2.
Q: How did Robinhood perform financially in Q2 2026?
A: In Q2 2026, Robinhood’s total revenue grew 32% year over year to $1.31 billion, a record high. But crypto business revenue fell 38% year over year to $100 million, representing only 8% of total company revenue.
Q: What revenue does StoneX forecast for Robinhood Chain?
A: StoneX forecasts that Robinhood Chain could generate $980 million in revenue by fiscal year 2029, with a profit margin of 85%.
Q: How big is Robinhood’s prediction market business?
A: In Q2 2026, Robinhood’s event contract trading volume reached 13.6 billion contracts, generating about $156 million in revenue, up 50% quarter over quarter.
Q: How is Robinhood’s tokenized stock rollout progressing?
A: On September 7, 2026, Robinhood officially launched on-chain trading for tokenized stocks. Tokenized stocks currently represent 27% of Robinhood Chain’s trading volume.
