In August 2026, Bitcoin saw a strong rally, with a monthly gain of 23.92%. price briefly pushed through the $81,000 level. However, once September began, Bitcoin price showed a clear pullback. As of September 2, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin was trading at $77,625.4, down 1.65% over the past 24 hours. It was up slightly by 0.31% over the last 7 days, representing a drop of about 4.7% from the August high.
The pullback pattern has the market-recognized look on technical charts—several analysts identified a "Bart Simpson" pattern on the 4-hour candlestick chart. The name comes from a hairstyle on the price movement that resembles the animated character: price sharply moves in one direction, then chops sideways within a narrow range, and finally drops quickly back to the prior level.
A purely technical pattern is not enough to make a directional call. What matters is the underlying logic driving this rally and pullback, and the structural signals released by on-chain and fund-flow data.
Spot demand turns negative: a structural break in upside momentum
The sustainability of a price rally depends on genuine buying demand in the spot market, not leverage-driven activity in derivatives. Data monitored by analysts shows that during the recent sideways consolidation phase, Bitcoin spot demand has turned negative for two straight days. At the same time, demand in the futures market has stayed firm, creating a pronounced divergence between the two.
Source: CW8900
This divergence is a warning signal. Spot demand shrinking means there isn’t enough real buying to absorb market supply right now. As a result, price gains rely more on derivatives leverage and sentiment to stay afloat. Analysts made a clear logical judgment: "Without spot demand, there won’t be a bull market." The essence of this reasoning is that, with insufficient spot absorption, the long positions in the futures market have built up excessively. Once market sentiment flips, it risks triggering large-scale liquidations and cascading position closures, which would intensify downward pressure on price.
From the data, as of September 2, 2026, Bitcoin’s market share was 29.91%, slightly down from the prior trading day. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators were in a neutral range. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $3.52 billion in net inflows in August, the highest level since July 2025, which provides some downside support. Still, it remains unclear whether ETF buying can fully offset long-term holders’ ongoing selling over the long run.
Long-term holders’ allocations surge 61.5%: structural pressure from profit-taking
More important than short-term fund flows is the change in long-term holder behavior. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, between August 18 and August 28, 2026, the 30-day cumulative allocation by Bitcoin long-term holders rose from 174,500 BTC to 281,900 BTC, an increase of 61.5%, the highest level since early 2026.
Over the same period, the long-term holder MVRV ratio rose from 1.31 on August 18 to 1.64 on August 27, and held at 1.60 on August 31. This implies that the market value of BTC held by long-term holders is about 60% higher than their average realized value—meaning there is a significant amount of unrealized profit. Adler pointed out that after the price rebound driven by a short squeeze, long-term holders now have a window to take profits. As price climbs back above $80,000, long-term holders choose to convert paper gains into real returns. This behavior is rational from a decision-making standpoint, but it directly impacts the market’s supply-demand balance.
Source: Axel Adler Jr
Seen from a broader perspective, LTH MVRV rising from 1.31 to 1.64 in just 10 days shows that long-term holders’ profitability improved rapidly during the price rise. Looking at historical cycles, when this metric sits at elevated levels, the opportunity cost for long-term holders keeps rising, which in turn strengthens their inclination to distribute. The current level of around 1.60 indicates an average profit margin of about 60%, giving ample room for further profit-taking. Adler also stated plainly that if the Bitcoin price stays stable, long-term holders may continue to release supply, adding additional selling pressure to the market.
The $75,800 level: the line in the sand for short-term price action
Combining technical analysis with on-chain data, analysts confirmed that the area around $75,800 is a key support level in the near term. If Bitcoin breaks below it, the decline could confirm a bearish trend and open further downside room. Conversely, if price can hold steadily above $75,800, the current "Bart Simpson" pattern may be invalidated. Buyers could regroup, and Bitcoin may rebound and then retest the area near the May high around $83,000.
Another technical signal worth watching comes from ETFs investors’ average cost basis. Based on market data, US spot Bitcoin ETF investors’ average cost basis sits in the $80,000 to $83,000 range. With the current Bitcoin price below this band, some ETF investors may be sitting on paper losses. If ETF inflows remain resilient and help Bitcoin reclaim this range, it would confirm institutional capital as a continued source of incremental demand. If, instead, long-term US Treasury yields stay elevated, this band could keep acting as a resistance zone.
In addition, macro factors can’t be ignored either. Axel Adler Jr noted that inflation and labor market data to be released over the coming days will significantly affect the Federal Reserve’s policy decision in September. Oil prices breaking above $90 and worsening global long-term bond selloffs are adding extra pressure on risk assets. According to KuCoin’s daily market report, unlike earlier periods when BTC faced mostly interest-rate pressure yet still held above $78,000, the current rise in both oil prices and long-end yields has already weakened price support. The short-term market setup has shifted from testing $80,000 to defending the support level.
Conclusion
The pullback that followed Bitcoin’s 25% rally in August wasn’t driven by a single factor. The "Bart Simpson" pattern on the technical side, spot demand turning negative in a row on the funding side, the 61.5% surge in long-term holder allocations to 281,900 BTC on-chain, and macro uncertainty around inflation and geopolitics—all of these combined to create today’s complicated situation.
From a logic standpoint, this rally was mainly driven by short-squeeze dynamics and inflows into institutional ETFs, rather than broad large-scale accumulation by long-term holders. When price returned above $80,000, long-term holders used the opportunity to take sizable profits. Their 30-day allocations grew by 61.5% in just 10 days, reaching a new 2026 high. Meanwhile, the sustained weakening of spot demand suggests that, at the current price level, this increased supply may lack sufficient buying power to absorb it.
$75,800 is the price level that needs close monitoring in the short term. The ETF investors’ cost band of $80,000 to $83,000 is the key resistance zone in the medium term. Potential pressure from the supply side, marginal weakening on the demand side, and uncertainty in the macro environment all point to one conclusion: the market is at a phase where it’s selecting direction, not at a confirmation of a one-way trend.
FAQ
Q: Why could Bitcoin rise by about 25% in August?
Bitcoin’s August rally was mainly driven by approximately $3.52 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, the US Treasury expanded its securities repurchase program, releasing liquidity. Combined with the short-squeeze effect, these forces pushed prices higher. This gain also reversed August’s historical seasonal tendency as Bitcoin’s weaker month.
Q: What signal does the long-term holders’ selling of 281,900 BTC send?
Within the 30-day period ending August 28, long-term holders cumulatively allocated 281,900 BTC, up 61.5% from the prior period and hitting a new 2026 high. This indicates that long-term holders are taking profits using the price increase. If spot demand can’t digest the added supply, the market could face ongoing sell pressure.
Q: Does the "Bart Simpson" pattern necessarily mean Bitcoin will keep falling?
Not necessarily. The pattern could reflect normal consolidation after a big swing, or it could be a bearish signal. The key is whether the $75,800 support holds or breaks: if it breaks, the bearish setup is confirmed; if it holds, Bitcoin could rebound and test $83,000 again.
Q: What does spot demand turning negative consecutively mean for Bitcoin price?
Spot demand turning negative means the market lacks real buying power to absorb supply. Price increases rely more on leverage and sentiment in the derivatives market. Analysts note that without spot-demand support, there won’t be a bull market. This divergence increases the market’s structural fragility.
Q: How will the Fed’s September policy decision affect Bitcoin?
Inflation and labor market data released in September will influence the Fed’s decision. If the data shows stubborn inflation or strong employment, the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance. A stronger dollar and lower risk appetite would put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. If the data supports rate-cut expectations, it could provide support for Bitcoin.
