The ups and downs in the crypto world are the norm; perseverance is the real confidence. There's no need to chase fleeting hot trends or be distracted by others' get-rich-quick stories—understanding and patience are what get you through bull and bear markets. In a bear market, focus on building knowledge and preparing; in a bull market, stay grounded and control your greed. Don’t gamble on luck or be swayed by emotions—protect your principal and maintain your rhythm. Over time, persistence will turn into surprises, and steady progress will pave a smooth path. Simply staying in the game for the long run is already the biggest advantage. This morning, BTC climbed to the 91,374 mark before pulling back, hitting a low of around 89,500 before stabilizing and rebounding. ETH moved in tandem with BTC, surging to 3,153 before facing resistance and dropping, then rebounding after hitting a low of 3,090. From the current market perspective, on the 1-hour chart, prices continue to consolidate narrowly below the midpoint of the range, with volatility gradually narrowing, reflecting strong market indecision and weak momentum. In terms of candlestick patterns, there are clear long lower wicks at the bottom, intuitively showing strong support and resilience below, with selling pressure largely absorbed. This could help accumulate strength for a subsequent rebound. In terms of strategy, it’s advisable to use a valid breakout above key resistance as a trend confirmation signal. Before a clear direction forms, a range-trading approach is recommended, waiting patiently for the market structure to become clearer before taking trend-following action. Follow the official account: Changsheng Looks at Trends Trading Recommendations: BTC: Go long around 89,800, target 92,000 ETH: Go long around 3,050, target 3,400 $BTC $ETH

Whether you can make money in the long run depends on two things: your probability of winning and the size of each win or loss. The combination of these two is the true core of trading—the expected value. Calculating expected value is simple: “Win rate × Profit per win” minus “Loss rate × Loss per loss.” Looking only at win rate is incomplete, because the amount won or lost is the real key to profit and loss. So a high win rate alone is meaningless. Even if you win nine times and lose once, as long as that one loss is big enough, all your small wins before can be wiped out in a single instance.

#ETH Ethereum's short-term trend is relatively strong, supported by news of whale accumulation. As long as the daily range of 3010-3050 holds, a rebound to 3180-3230 can be expected; if it breaks through, look for 3500-3600 (this range can be used to set up short positions). If it falls below 3000, the bullish pattern will be broken, so be cautious of risks. Follow me for continuous updates.