There's a theory floating around that might shift how we view current inflation dynamics.

The argument? Price pressures aren't coming from imported goods—those have been surprisingly stable. Instead, the real driver sits in the service economy. Healthcare costs, rent increases, labor-intensive services—these are what's pushing numbers higher.

Here's the kicker: if imported goods aren't the culprit, then tariff discussions might be missing the actual problem. You could adjust trade barriers all day, but if service sector costs keep climbing, the inflation needle barely moves.

Data backs this up. Goods prices from imports have flatlined while service inflation keeps accelerating. Different beast, different solution needed.

For markets watching monetary policy and rate decisions, this distinction matters. Central banks targeting inflation need to recognize where heat's actually building—not where headlines suggest it should be.