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What happened in the prediction markets last year? You could say it was a story of highs and lows.
On one hand, policies were loosening: the US opened the door to political betting, the CFTC gave Kalshi the green light to become the first licensed event contract platform, and after the new administration took office, they even disbanded the crypto enforcement task force.
On the other hand, enforcement actions continued: the CEO of Polymarket had their home searched by the FBI—even the industry leader couldn't escape.
This contradiction is quite interesting—regulators are opening up, but they're also drawing boundaries. For prediction markets to move from the gray area into the spotlight, it looks like they’ll need to prepare for a long tug-of-war. The road to compliance is bound to be bumpy.