Many people say that there is no alt season anymore, and the four-year bull-bear cycle is gone. I think if it's every four years, that means the next bull run should be in 2025. It's not even the end of 2025 yet, and predictions are already saying it's gone? Wasn't the big bull run in 2017 also from September to December? This year hasn't even reached September yet.

Secondly, some people say that there are too many cryptocurrencies now, and there isn't enough money to pump them. In the past, there were only a few thousand coins, but now there are thousands of new coins every day, and the total number of cryptocurrencies is not far from breaking one hundred million. If I issue a coin on the chain just for fun during a bull run, can it also surpass a market value of ten million dollars? Indeed, there are thousands of new coins added every day, but the vast majority of them become worthless on the same day, let alone entering the secondary market. Institutions don't pump these coins; they at least pump coins that have presence in the secondary market, those on mainstream exchanges. Checking the current CMC or Bihu, I found that there are over 9,700 coins listed on CMC and around 17,000 on Bihu.
In previous bull runs during alt season, Bitcoin's market share would reach over 70%, and Bitcoin would break its previous high, then consolidate for a few days before altcoins would start to rally. After Bitcoin stabilizes, it continues to rise, then consolidates again, and alt season continues to rise.... After several rounds, when Bitcoin reaches its peak and starts to fall, altcoins also begin to drop, marking the onset of a long bear market. In a bear market, Bitcoin can drop by as much as 85%, while altcoins can drop by 99%. Then the next round begins.... Looking back at the two mini-bulls in 2024, one in March and one in December. In both instances, Bitcoin's market share did not exceed 70%. After both times Bitcoin broke its new high, altcoins only rallied once before starting to plummet because Bitcoin did not keep breaking new highs. In contrast, looking back at the bull run from January to April 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached over 70% in January, and over the next four months, it continuously broke new highs, increasing by more than three times, while altcoins increased by dozens of times.
If Bitcoin does not break new highs in the future, there indeed will not be an alt season. Or if Bitcoin breaks new highs and then falls back, there will also be no alt season. Personally, I still have a positive outlook on the performance of altcoins in the next six months.
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