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If there is indeed a one-time reduction of 50 basis points next week, how will the market react?
If it is just normal monetary easing, then it is certainly a positive; but if it is due to a poor economy that forces a reduction, then the market will start to worry about a recession. A recession cannot only be judged by employment data, but also by GDP. The foundation of the U.S. economy is not that weak, and investment and construction cannot be accomplished overnight. There are still good opportunities in the fourth quarter; it depends on whether the market believes it.
My judgment is that the market will experience some panic, likely resulting in polarization. The AI-related sectors will probably remain strong, but traditional economic sectors and cyclical stocks may come under pressure. If the data revision is very negative, coupled with a pessimistic outlook from the Fed, the market could very well rise first and then fall.