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Poor employment, stock market leads? An alternative interpretation of non-farm payrolls.

This month's non-farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, even the "crystal ball masters" of Wall Street were caught off guard. Interestingly, the stock market's reaction wasn't entirely pessimistic. The logic is quite simple: poor employment → economic pressure → the Fed needs to cut interest rates → a liquidity bonanza is coming! Thus, the US stock market instantly adopted the old trope of "bad news is good news."
But it's not that simple. The decline in the job market indicates a lack of confidence among businesses, especially as new positions in the service industry have significantly shrunk, which is not a short-term "technical error." If the economy slows down too much, the benefits of interest rate cuts could turn into a "painkiller," with limited effects.
The market is playing a double act: investors complain about sluggish employment while cheering for hopes of interest rate cuts; the US dollar index weakens while commodities celebrate wildly. As for the real economy? It might quietly be backstage smoking a cigarette, muttering to itself, "Don't rush, I'm not giving up yet."
So, the takeaway from this non-farm payroll is: don't put too much faith in the superficial drama of the data; smart people understand the direction of policy, not the "number games."