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Non-farm payroll data disappoints: is it a crisis or a windfall?
The August non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, causing the market to erupt with two opposing voices: the pessimists shouting "a recession is coming," while the optimists raise their glasses to celebrate "an early interest rate cut package." This drama is even more thrilling than a palace intrigue drama.
Data reveals an awkward truth: the U.S. job market is gradually cooling down, companies are less willing to hire, and labor demand is not as booming as it used to be. In the short term, the unemployment rate is still relatively "stable," but the trend is already hinting that the future may not be bright. The Federal Reserve, faced with such results, looks like a parent watching their child fail an exam: both angry and forced to find reasons to comfort themselves.
For the market, the logic of bad news = good news still holds. The weakening dollar boosts risk assets. However, this kind of euphoria has a problem: it feels more like an advance on future "policy expectations". Once subsequent data disappoints or inflation resurfaces, the party may come to an abrupt end.
So, this non-farm payroll is both a crisis and a pie. Many are happy to eat it, but those who can truly digest it, I fear, are few.
Smart friends, don't just stare at the food and drinks on the table; you also need to keep an eye on whether the waiter will suddenly clear the table.