🚗 #GateSquareCommunityChallenge# Round 1 — Who Will Be The First To The Moon?
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Discuss the investment opportunities in the A-share market for the last four months of 2025.
1. I won't elaborate on semiconductor tech stocks anymore; there's no cost-effectiveness in chasing them now. Those that haven't risen from a low position are basically junk. When the semiconductor sector adjusts, they will be the first to go. It’s better to buy Cambricon than to buy low-position junk. In this market, you should either chase the highest or buy the lowest; don't buy in between.
2. Special valuation, special valuation, still special valuation. The repricing of Chinese assets has not yet been fully reflected in stock prices. This is the strongest certainty and the hardest logic. The so-called logic refers to the potential favorable factors that may arise in the future; the greater the likelihood of these favorable factors appearing, the harder the logic becomes. This includes but is not limited to shipping, military industry, minerals, energy, chemicals, electricity, and so on. However, if you can buy state-owned enterprises, do not buy local state-owned enterprises; if you can buy large market capitalization stocks, do not buy small market capitalization stocks; if you can buy stocks in a bullish arrangement, do not buy those in a range-bound or downtrend. If the market has reached this point and is still not rising, then there is a significant problem; the candlestick chart has already expressed everything.
If the main theme of the market is technology stocks, then the best performers within that are those driven by domestic substitution logic and the CPO logic that corresponds to US stock chain mapping. The underlying theme of the market is the valuation of Chinese assets, which I have been discussing for a long time.
The underlying logic of domestic substitution in technology is precisely because hard technology cannot be controlled by foreign capital, right? So the funds chose to support them all the way, even if it means pulling it up to a high position before it drops down again, they cannot let foreign capital pick it up at a low price. ( Of course, there are too many muddy waters in technology, which is also a characteristic of our A-shares. ) In this market, low-priced Chinese heavy industry, shipping, electricity, and minerals also follow this simple logic. It's just that the A-share capital market hasn't been fully opened yet; there's still time, so there's no rush. The semiconductor sector has seen a decline from last November to this July, with nearly 9 months of adjustment time.