XRP ETF Latest Analysis: Is the probability of XRP ETF approval this year over 90%?

The ongoing legal dispute between the SEC and Ripple Labs, lasting nearly five years, will reach a decisive moment today. Both parties are required to submit a joint report to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit by August 15, a move that could lead to the SEC's appeal being formally dismissed.

This development will clear the biggest regulatory hurdle facing XRP and pave the way for the approval of a spot ETF.

##Legal Conclusion: The Final Chapter of a Five-Year Standoff

In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for raising $1.3 billion through the sale of unregistered XRP, marking the beginning of the longest legal battle in crypto history.

The core dispute of the case is whether XRP is considered a security. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres made a key ruling: XRP does not constitute a security in retail sales, but sales to institutional investors are considered securities transactions.

In August 2024, Ripple was fined $125 million. In June of this year, both parties jointly applied to use funds from the escrow account to pay the fine, of which $50 million was allocated to the SEC and $75 million was returned to Ripple.

Lawyer Bill Morgan predicted on social media: "The likelihood of the SEC dropping the case is greater than the likelihood of it not happening, and the timing could be before the August 15 deadline." If the report is successfully submitted today, this legal tug-of-war will officially come to an end.

ETF Probability Surge: From Theoretical Possibility to Inevitable Reality

As legal risks dissipate, the approval probability of the XRP ETF has undergone a dramatic leap. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of approval within 2025 has soared from 66% (on August 7) to the current 79%-88%.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is more optimistic, maintaining that there is a 95% chance that the XRP ETF will be approved within the year, believing that the market has overreacted to SEC Commissioner Crenshaw's dissenting vote.

Crenshaw voted against 13 crypto ETF proposals, including XRP, on July 29, which briefly caused the Polymarket probability to drop to 62%. However, as the only crypto skeptic within the SEC, her opposition is seen as a procedural statement rather than a substantive obstacle.

##Institutional Endorsement: Why XRP ETF May Outperform Ethereum?

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg's remarks have stirred the market: he asserts that the XRP ETF will outperform the Ethereum ETF due to three core advantages.

Lack of Staking Disadvantages: Unlike Ethereum, which offers a staking yield of 2-3%, XRP does not provide native staking. This instead becomes a structural advantage for the ETF—investors do not face the "opportunity cost" psychological burden when holding XRP through the ETF.

Dominance in the Payment Sector: XRP's practical applications in cross-border payments, remittances, and enterprise-level transactions far exceed those of its competitors. Its technology has become an important component of financial infrastructure, making it inherently attractive to traditional financial institutions.

Fervent community support: XRP holders demonstrate strong loyalty. McClurg predicts that based on community strength and institutional interest, the first-month capital inflow for the XRP ETF could reach $5 billion, crushing the performance of the Ethereum ETF during the same period.

Global search data supports this popularity: over the past month, Google searches for "XRP ETF" surged by 733%, with the highest demand from North American and Asian investors.

Timeline Simulation: The Precise Path to Approval

NASDAQ, NYSE, and CBOE have joined forces to establish a universal listing standard for crypto ETFs, providing a clear regulatory compliance pathway for XRP ETFs.

According to the new regulations, any cryptocurrency that has a regulated U.S. futures market and has been operating for more than six months qualifies for ETF listing. XRP futures have been launched on CME and Coinbase, and it is expected to meet the requirement soon.

Nate Geraci, President of the wealth management company The ETF Store, outlined a clear timeframe: "When the SEC implements these standardized frameworks, the floodgates will open." He expects the new regulations to be implemented within the next two months, triggering a wave of crypto ETF listings.

Canary Capital has submitted an application, and McClurg confidently stated: "We fully expect to receive approval by the end of 2025.".

Price Impact: From Realistic Goals to Wild Predictions

The clarification of regulations and expectations for ETFs have recently driven the price of XRP to break through the psychological barrier of $3. Technical analysis indicates that after breaking the resistance level of $3.38, the short-term target points to $3.65 (close to the historical high of 2018).

Mid-term forecasts are more optimistic: if the ETF is approved and attracts the expected $5 billion in inflows in the first month, conservative models (Gemini AI's 10-15 times multiplier) indicate that the XRP price will reach $3.99-$4.41; aggressive predictions (272 times multiplier) even point to $26.

Most analysts agree that a reasonable target range by the end of 2025 is $5 to $5.50. A report released by Futu Securities on August 14 stated: "Breaking through $5.50 will depend on the actual inflow of funds into ETFs and the increased penetration of Ripple's ODL solutions among financial institutions."

##Remaining Risks: Warning Signals Not to Be Ignored

Even in an optimistic atmosphere, risks still exist. Ripple regularly unlocks XRP (for example, unlocking 500 million in January 2025) which may create sustained selling pressure.

Global cryptocurrency regulatory policies still have uncertainties. Although internal opposition within the SEC is weak, it may delay the process. Additionally, macro factors such as Bitcoin price fluctuations and shifts in Federal Reserve policies will also significantly affect the flow of funds.

The most realistic challenge is that the circulating supply of XRP is as high as 58.3 billion. To achieve a triple-digit price, it would need to surpass the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market, which is nearly impossible in the medium term. Mainstream institutions still maintain their price forecasts for 2028 in the range of $12.5 to $30.

##Future Outlook The market's attention is focused on New York. With the submission of the joint report by the SEC and Ripple, XRP's identification as a "non-security" will receive final judicial endorsement. Once this regulatory gate is opened, ETF applications from institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, which are already prepared, will flood in.

Bloomberg Terminal data shows that over $230 million has been allocated to XRP through the futures market in the first two weeks of August, setting a record for the highest monthly total in 2025. An internal memorandum from the SEC's Trading and Markets Division indicates that if today's legal proceedings conclude smoothly, the first batch of XRP spot ETFs could be approved as early as late September.