The number of unemployment claims in the United States is an important high-frequency indicator reflecting the health of the labor market, mainly including the following two categories of data (taking the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 9 as highlighted in red in the image as an example):

1. Initial Jobless Claims

- Definition: The number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits, reflecting the newly generated unemployment situation in the short term.
- Data in the image: Previous value 226,000, forecast value 228,000 (actual value not published).
- Importance: ★★★★★ High-frequency data (released weekly) with high market sensitivity. If the actual value is higher than the forecast, it may indicate economic weakness; if lower than the forecast, it suggests a strong labor market.
- Impact:
- Stock Market: Poor data → may be bearish for the stock market (concerns about economic recession).
- US Dollar: Good data → US Dollar strengthens (interest rate hike expectations rise).
- Federal Reserve policy: Sustained high levels may delay interest rate hikes or trigger discussions of rate cuts.

2. Continuing Claims

- Definition: The total number of individuals continuously applying for unemployment benefits, reflecting long-term unemployment pressure.
- Data in the chart: Previous value 1.974 million, forecast 1.964 million (for the week ending August 2).
- Importance: ★★★☆☆ Reflects the difficulty of reemployment for the unemployed. If it continues to rise, it indicates a slow recovery in the labor market.

Other key points

- Surrounding average (22.075 million people in the figure): Smooths weekly fluctuations and reflects trends more stably.
- Historical Comparison: Current initial claims data is close to historical lows (average of about 230,000 in 2023), indicating that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
- PPI linkage: If the PPI data (Producer Price Index) released on the same day exceeds expectations, it may compound the impact of unemployment data on inflation expectations.

Data Source and Release Time

- Issuing Agency: U.S. Department of Labor (DOL)
- Frequency: Every Thursday at 20:30 (Beijing Time, Daylight Saving Time).
- Market Strategy: Traders often compare the relationship between "previous value - forecast - published value" when trading volatile assets (such as US stocks and the US dollar index) in short-term operations.